Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

Total Volume

$6.56K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $6.56K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.56K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?	Kalshi	71%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

71%

Top Probability

$6.56K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

For tax year 2026 If the IRS collects more tax revenue in 2026 than 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, March 2, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** For tax year 2026

If the IRS collects more tax revenue in 2026 than 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the IRS collects more tax revenue in 2026 than 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 31, 2027): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

71¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/lE9K7H" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?"></iframe>

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Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

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Will the IRS collect more in taxes this year than last year?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)