Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The saved event asks how many passing touchdowns Trevor Lawrence records in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each market is a threshold question. A "Yes" resolution requires the count to equal or exceed the listed number, and otherwise the market resolves to "No" [1]. If Lawrence does not play in the regular season for any reason, the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or the count cannot be determined, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract closing time, not an announced event date. The resolution source is official NFL information, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z, and the record was retrieved at 2026-10-16T04:31:42.788Z [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they may have changed since observation. The quoted Yes prices are 0.87 for 19.5+, 0.71 for 22.5+, 0.55 for 25.5+, 0.655 for 28.5+, and 0.73 for 31.5+ [1].

The 31.5+ contract has a higher Yes price than the 25.5+ and 28.5+ contracts. The evidence does not explain this ordering, so it should be checked against the live listing before drawing conclusions. The sample is also listed in descending Yes price order, which is a display ranking, not a threshold sequence [1].

All five saved markets for this event are included, and the coverage record marks the sample as not partial [1]. The same record notes that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The evidence contains only this one provider and event.

What remains uncertain

No comparison with other platforms is possible from this evidence. Differences in price between separate contracts, or between wording on different platforms, are not an arbitrage opportunity and should not be averaged together. The evidence does not say why prices sit where they do, and it contains no information on Lawrence's health, roster status, or other season conditions. Whether the market resolves to "Yes," "No," or "50-50" depends on events after the snapshot and on the official NFL data described in the rules [1].

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Trevor Lawrence 2026-27 Regular Season Passing Touchdowns. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.