Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This record covers one Polymarket contract, "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET" [1]. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T14:30:00.000Z [1]. The title uses ET while the listed end time is given in UTC, so readers should check the conversion themselves. The listed end time is a closing time in the provider record, not a confirmed resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed the market at 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z, and this record was retrieved at 2026-10-25T17:35:46.115Z [1]. Both times describe the saved snapshot. They do not show the price now.
At observation, the saved prices were 0.505 for "Up" and 0.495 for "Down" [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, but it describes only this record at this observation time.
The saved event includes one market, and the coverage record marks it as complete with no partial sample [1]. Because the event contains only this contract, there are no other outcomes in the sample to compare. The source also notes that the sample "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. This record also has no volume or trader data, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.
What remains uncertain
The record does not explain why prices were at these levels at observation time. It contains no news or market-specific commentary. It also offers no evidence about how well prices have forecast similar contracts. Prices from other platforms or other contracts should not be averaged with these, and differences in their wording or closing times would need separate review.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T15:00:05.906Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term Polymarket contract titled "Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET" [1]. The contract is in the crypto category and is listed as active in the provider's data [1]. Its rules tie the outcome to the price of Solana over a specific five-minute window, not to a general view of the Solana market. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink, specifically its SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval [1]. The rules state that only this Chainlink data stream counts, not other sources or spot markets [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-26 at 14:30 UTC [1]. The title gives the window as 10:25 AM to 10:30 AM ET on October 26 [1]. A contract date in the rules marks when the market is set to close, not an announced event or outcome. The price snapshot in this record shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are prices from a single observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The record contains only this one market, so it does not show whether any other outcomes exist for this event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow question: whether the time-weighted average SOL/USD price from the Chainlink stream over the stated five-minute window ends at or above the price where that window begins [1]. Because the measure is an average over the window and is compared against the starting price, a short move that reverses within the window may not change the result, and the rules as supplied do not describe any other settlement method [1]. Traders and readers should note that the contract is defined by the Chainlink stream and not by any exchange price [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What decides whether this market resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Solana from the Chainlink data stream over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is Chainlink's SOL/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval, and the rules say other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the market end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-26 at 14:30 UTC, which matches the 10:30 AM ET end of the window in the title [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that Solana goes up?
The listed prices are a single snapshot of Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a confirmed chance of either outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.