This prediction market focuses on forecasting how many times Elon Musk will post on his X account (@elonmusk) during May 2026. The market resolves based on a count of his main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts. Replies are excluded, with a specific exception for replies that appear directly on the main feed, such as the example provided. Deleted posts are counted if they remain visible for approximately five minutes, the time needed for tracking software to capture them. Elon Musk's posting behavior on X is a subject of significant public and financial interest. His tweets have moved markets, influenced political discourse, and driven news cycles since he joined the platform in 2009. As the owner of X since October 2022, his relationship with the platform is unique; he is both its most prominent user and its proprietor. This dual role makes his posting frequency a metric watched by investors, journalists, and regulators. Interest in this specific metric stems from its volatility. Musk's posting can be sporadic, with periods of intense activity followed by relative quiet. His output often correlates with major company events, product launches, or personal engagements. Tracking his monthly post count provides a quantifiable measure of his public engagement level, which can signal his focus, his companies' operational status, or his reactions to current events. For prediction markets, this topic offers a clear, numerical outcome that is objectively verifiable, making it an ideal subject for speculative forecasting.

Historical Context

Elon Musk joined Twitter in June 2009. His early activity was modest, but his use of the platform escalated dramatically in the 2010s as a direct channel for announcing SpaceX and Tesla news, engaging with customers, and commenting on public affairs. A pivotal moment occurred in August 2018 when Musk tweeted 'Am considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured.' This post led to an SEC investigation, a lawsuit, and the aforementioned settlement that required oversight of his tweets about Tesla. This event cemented the real-world financial impact of his social media activity. His posting volume has shown extreme variation. According to data from tracker ElonX, Musk averaged about 340 posts per month in 2020. This skyrocketed to over 1,000 posts in some months during 2022, the year he moved to acquire the company. Following the acquisition in October 2022, his monthly counts remained high but volatile, often exceeding 500 posts. This historical volatility is the foundation for prediction markets; there is no consistent baseline, making forecasting a challenge. The precedent for counting posts was set by existing prediction markets and betting pools that have tracked metrics like Musk's tweet count for years, establishing methodologies for what counts as a post versus a reply.

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