Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Polymarket event asks how many receiving touchdowns DK Metcalf records in the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each threshold is a separate contract. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the number of receiving touchdowns DK Metcalf records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number" [1]. If Metcalf does not play in the regular season "for any reason," the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season is cancelled, postponed after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or cannot be determined, the market resolves to "50-50" [1]. The stated resolution source is "official information from the NFL," though "a consensus of credible reporting may also be used" [1].

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these markets at 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T06:29:22.562Z [1]. These values describe that snapshot only. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices were 0.9215 for 1.5 or more, 0.735 for 3.5 or more, 0.72 for 5.5 or more, 0.27 for 7.5 or more, and 0.139 for 9.5 or more [1].

The contracts do not share one closing time. The 1.5 and 3.5 thresholds list an end date of 2027-01-12T23:59:00.000Z, while the 5.5, 7.5, and 9.5 thresholds list 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not explain this difference, so readers should compare contracts only with their wording and close times in view. The 3.5 and 5.5 prices are close, but they are different thresholds with different listed close times, so they should not be read as a single measure.

The sample includes all five saved markets for this event, and coverage is marked as not partial [1]. The saved list is ordered by Yes price, so it is not a ranking across platforms. Only one provider event is included.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not say why prices are at these levels. It also does not report trading volume, liquidity, or the number of traders. Volume is not liquidity, and a single snapshot does not show how prices will change. The sample warning states that the saved data "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1], so the set of thresholds shown should not be treated as complete. No game results or season outcomes appear in the evidence, so the final resolution remains unknown.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: DK Metcalf 2026-27 Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z.