NEAR Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 0 contracts
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NEAR Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 0 contracts
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Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Target Price: $5.2596 at 60.5%.
Kalshi
- Target Price: $5.259660.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 21 - 8:00PM EDT to 8:15PM EDT If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' NEARUSDRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on Oct 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' NEARUSDRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event is a short-horizon price contract on NEAR. The rules excerpt says the market resolves to Yes if "the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' NEARUSDRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on Oct 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' NEARUSDRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2026" [1]. The comparison uses the CF Benchmarks Real Time Index, not a single exchange or consumer price site. The excerpt also states that the official value is the average of 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration, rounded to four decimal places [1]. The event title gives the window as Oct 21, 8:00PM EDT to 8:15PM EDT [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved record contains one market, "NEAR price up in next 15 mins?", on Kalshi, with a Yes price of 0.605 and a No price of 0.395 [1]. These are snapshot prices observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. They are not executable quotes and do not verify a probability. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-22T05:52:15.780Z, so these figures describe that earlier observation and should not be read as current prices [1].
The platform's listed endDate is 2026-10-29T00:15:00.000Z [1]. This does not match the 8:15 PM EDT close on October 21 named in the rules and title, which corresponds to 2026-10-22T00:15:00Z. The contract text is the better guide to the measurement window, and the endDate field is an unexplained discrepancy in this record. The excerpt itself lists the end time as not supplied [1].
Because only one contract appears in the saved sample, there is no comparison across outcomes or platforms. The sample includes every saved market for this event, but the record does not establish that other NEAR markets do not exist.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include volume, the number of traders, the reasons prices stand where they do, or any trading after the observation time. Provider status is listed as active, but the record does not show whether the contract has since closed or settled [1]. The actual resolution is not in the supplied evidence. Readers should check the official source for the final settlement value before drawing any conclusion about the outcome.
References
- Kalshi: NEAR Up or Down - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
NEAR Up or Down - 15 minutes is a short-window crypto contract listed on Kalshi. Its rules ask whether the NEAR price is at least as high at the end of a fifteen-minute window as it was at the start [1]. The contract is a binary market with Yes and No outcomes, and the saved record shows one market in this event [1]. The rules compare two averages. If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' NEARUSDRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on October 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' NEARUSDRTI before 8:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2026, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules state that the window in question runs from 8:00 PM EDT to 8:15 PM EDT on October 21, 2026 [1]. The rules also specify which price is used. They say that not all cryptocurrency price data is the same and that the price used is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, not a general consumer reference [1]. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected, and the official value is their average, rounded to the nearest four decimal places [1]. The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z, when the Yes outcome was priced at 0.605 and the No outcome at 0.395 [1]. A snapshot records what the provider showed at that moment. It is not an executable quote, and it does not indicate how the market is trading now. The market record also lists an end date of 2026-10-29T00:15:00.000Z [1]. The contract rules, however, describe a window ending at 8:15 PM EDT on October 21, 2026, so that listed date should not be read as the time the price was set or the time the outcome was determined.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the CF Benchmarks NEARUSDRTI reference price, averaged over the final sixty seconds before the window closes, is at least as high as the same average taken at the window's start [1]. Because the comparison uses averages rather than single prints, the rules are designed to reduce the effect of one momentary price [1]. Anyone reading the contract should follow its stated index and averaging method rather than a general price source, since the rules say the index, not other price sites, determines the result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean for this contract?
A Yes outcome applies if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' NEARUSDRTI before 8:15 PM EDT on October 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds before 8:00 PM EDT on the same date [1].
Why does the contract not use a standard exchange price?
The rules state that not all cryptocurrency price data is the same and that the price used to determine the market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index [1].
How is the final value calculated?
At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest four decimal places [1].
Is the displayed price the current price?
No. The saved Yes price of 0.605 and No price of 0.395 come from a snapshot observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z [1]. The price is not an executable quote, and the market record does not show the outcome of the contract.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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