Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract on the Hyperliquid event titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET" [1]. The rules say the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The reference is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state the market concerns "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The contract's listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:35:00.000Z [1]. The window is defined in the title as 12:30AM to 12:35AM ET. Readers should treat the listed close time as the contract's closing time, not as confirmation of a resolution outcome. The evidence does not show a resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These were observed at 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T12:02:27.944Z [1]. This means the prices describe a snapshot taken roughly three hours before retrieval. They do not describe the market at the time of reading.
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include order book depth, spreads, or trading volume, so it cannot speak to liquidity or how many participants are involved. The two outcomes sum to 1.000, and the provider lists only this one market for the event [1].
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. Because only this contract is present, there is no comparison across other contracts or platforms here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices are where they are, and this summary does not offer a reason. It also does not show whether the price has changed since the observation time, nor what the TWAP will be over the window. The source reports the provider status as active, but that describes the provider record at retrieval, not the outcome [1].
Other Hyperliquid or HYPE contracts, possibly with different windows, wording, or close times, are outside this sample. A difference in price between contracts with different rules should not be read as an opportunity without checking those rules first.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T09:00:06.125Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on Polymarket titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 31, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET" [1]. It asks whether the price of HYPE/USD over a five-minute window will end up higher or lower than where it started. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) across the window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is tied to one specific data source. The rules name Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source, and state that the market concerns only that stream, not other price feeds or spot markets [1]. Traders therefore need to understand the Chainlink series, not general quotes for the token elsewhere, when reading the contract. The listed end time is 2026-10-31T04:35:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the window described in the title [1]. That date is taken from the contract rules and does not by itself confirm when the market will close or resolve in practice. The source describes the contract as active at the time it was retrieved [1]. At the observation time recorded for this contract, the "Up" outcome was priced at 0.505 and the "Down" outcome at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices from one moment. They are not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of either result.
Why It Matters
The contract measures short-term price direction for HYPE/USD as reported by a single named oracle feed. Because the test compares the window's time-weighted average with the price at the start of the window, the result depends on how the price moved across the whole five minutes rather than only on the final price [1]. Anyone reading the contract should check that the Chainlink stream is the reference, since the rules explicitly exclude other sources and spot markets [1]. The prices shown for the two outcomes reflect market trading at one moment, so they indicate where the market stood then and do not guarantee a result [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the "Up" outcome mean in this contract?
"Up" resolves if the time-weighted average price of HYPE over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, according to the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP stream [1].
What does the "Down" outcome mean?
"Down" applies if the time-weighted average over the window is below the price at the beginning of the window, measured with the same Chainlink data stream [1].
Which price source decides the result?
The rules name the Chainlink HYPE/USD TWAP data stream as the resolution source and state that other sources or spot markets do not count [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance of each outcome?
The listed prices of 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down were recorded at one observation time [1]. The source does not establish them as verified probabilities or as prices a trader could execute.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.