Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/25-10/31)
K 27.9K contracts
1
13
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/25-10/31)
K 27.9K contracts
1
13
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is <140 at 26%.
Kalshi
- <14026%
- 140-15915.5%
- 160-17915%
- 180-19912%
- 200-21911.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 27.9K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
13
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Oct 25, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026 If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Oct 25, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026 is between X and Y then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved The observation period begins at 12:00:00 AM ET on Oct 25, 2026 and ends at 11:59:59 PM ET on Oct 31, 2026. The primary resolution source for this market is Roll Call. In the event that Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion. Payout criteria Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count. Replies are included if captured by Roll Call. "Between" is inclusive of the lower and upper bound. Doesn’t count for payout: Posts deleted as of 12:00 AM ET.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Kalshi event asks how many Truth Social posts Donald Trump makes in a set window. The rules state: "If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Oct 25, 2026 to Oct 31, 2026 is between X and Y then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The observation period runs from 12:00:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026 to 11:59:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026 [1]. The primary resolution source is Roll Call, with alternative sources possible at Kalshi's discretion [1].
The counting rules matter for comparison. "Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count," and "Replies are included if captured by Roll Call" [1]. Posts deleted as of 12:00 AM ET do not count toward payout [1]. Each market uses a different bound, so the Yes contracts answer different questions.
The market records list an end date of January 29, 2027, but the source excerpt says the "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. Treat that date as a listed field in the data, not as the close of the observation window or the resolution date.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 06:00 UTC on October 26, 2026, and the source was retrieved later that morning [1]. They are a snapshot from that time, not current quotes or verified probabilities, and they are not executable prices.
The sample includes 12 of 13 markets in this event. The Yes prices in the sample are: below 140 at 20.5 cents; 180 to 199 at 16.5 cents; 160 to 179 at 15.0 cents; 140 to 159 at 14.5 cents; 200 to 219 at 10.0 cents; 220 to 239 at 7.0 cents; 240 to 259 at 6.0 cents; 260 to 279 at 4.5 cents; 280 to 299 at 3.5 cents; and three markets (at least 360, 340 to 359, and 320 to 339) each at 1.5 cents [1].
The highest Yes price in the included sample belongs to the below 140 contract. The one omitted market is not shown, so no conclusion about its price is supported. The sample also should not be read as a full distribution, because the Yes prices here do not represent a complete set of mutually exclusive outcomes.
Trading volume is not included in this interpretation, and the snapshot does not show how many traders hold any position.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are at these levels. It also does not show the post count so far in the window, any recent events affecting posting, or whether Roll Call will capture every post. The listed end date of January 29, 2027 conflicts with the observation window described in the rules, and the excerpt does not resolve that. Readers should check the current contract page and rules before relying on any figure.
References
- Kalshi: Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/25-10/31). Provider data observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Kalshi event that asks how many Truth Social posts Donald Trump will make during the week of October 25 to October 31, 2026 [1]. The event is organized as a set of range contracts. Each contract resolves to Yes if the count falls within its stated range, with the bounds treated as inclusive [1]. The event's observation period starts at 12:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026 and ends at 11:59:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026 [1]. The event is listed on the provider with active status [1]. Because the observation window is defined in Eastern Time, a post made at a different local time may still fall inside or outside the window depending on its ET timestamp. The contract counts Truths, ReTruths and Quote Truths toward the total [1]. Replies are included only when the primary resolution source captures them [1]. Posts that are deleted as of 12:00 AM ET on October 25 do not count toward the payout [1]. The primary resolution source named in the rules is Roll Call. If Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, the provider may use alternative sources at its discretion [1]. Anyone reading a price should keep in mind that a contract's outcome depends on these counting rules, not on the general public perception of the account's activity. The market records saved for this event list an end date in late January 2027 [1]. That is a field in the contract record, not an announced event date or a confirmed resolution date. The rules describe the observation window and the resolution process, and they do not announce when the counted posts will be finalized. The event's saved market sample includes Yes and No prices for range contracts with bounds from below 140 posts to at least 360 posts [1]. Those prices are snapshots taken at the time of the provider observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. A price can be read as the market's most recent recorded trading level for that contract, not as a guarantee of how the count will turn out.
Historical Context
Wikipedia describes Truth Social as an American alt-tech social media platform owned by Trump Media & Technology Group, and says it has been called a Twitter clone that competes with Parler, Gab, Bluesky and Mastodon [2]. This is background on the platform. It does not establish any current posting pattern, and the sources supplied for this entry do not describe how the account's posting volume has changed over time.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a count of posts over a fixed window, not a general judgment about the account. Its rules define what is counted (Truths, ReTruths and Quote Truths), how replies are handled (only when captured by Roll Call), and which deleted posts are excluded [1]. A reader interested in this contract needs those definitions, because two posts that look similar can be treated differently. The range structure also means that each contract is a separate yes or no question about one band of counts. Prices for different bands should not be compared as if they were one ranked list of likely outcomes, and a lower price on one band does not show what the price on an omitted band would be [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What period does the contract cover?
The observation period begins at 12:00 AM ET on October 25, 2026 and ends at 11:59:59 PM ET on October 31, 2026 [1].
Which posts are counted?
Truths, ReTruths and Quote Truths are included in the total count. Replies are included only if they are captured by Roll Call [1].
Are deleted posts counted?
Posts deleted as of 12:00 AM ET do not count for payout [1].
What source decides the count?
Roll Call is the primary resolution source. If its data is unavailable or inaccurate, alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion [1].
Does a price show the chance that a count will occur?
The recorded prices are snapshots from the provider's observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as a guaranteed chance of any outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
