Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory
PM $22.8K
1
10
Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory
PM $22.8K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 25-30% at 31.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 25-30%31.5%
- Democrat 20-25%23.5%
- Democrat 30-35%18.5%
- Democrat 15-20%14.8%
- Democrat 10-15%8.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $22.8K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event resolves on the margin of victory in the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. The margin is the absolute difference between the valid-vote percentages of the first- and second-place candidates [1]. Each listed contract asks about a bracket of that margin, or about which party wins. The source states that independent candidates do not count as either party's option [1].
The rules include several resolution details that affect how a bracket is read. If the reported margin falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher bracket [1]. Resolution uses the official vote count once it is certified, and a recount keeps the market open until it is completed [1]. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That date is a fallback in the rules, not an announced schedule.
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z, and the rules say the election is "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T22:06:41.096Z [1]. These prices describe that observation only. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities.
All ten saved markets for this event are included, with no partial sample flagged [1]. The Yes prices range from 0.0005 on the "5%-10%" bracket to 0.3 on the "25%-30%" bracket. The Republican contract shows a Yes price of 0.013 [1]. The bracket Yes prices in this snapshot add up to slightly more than 1, so they should not be read as a complete probability distribution.
Because the listed brackets are different contracts, their prices should be compared only within this event. Differences in wording, such as "by 40% or more" versus "by 25%-30%," matter for interpretation. Volume data is not included here, so this snapshot says nothing about liquidity or the number of traders.
What remains uncertain
The sample describes the saved provider event, not every possible real-world outcome. The source warns that its inclusion of all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. A low price on any listed bracket therefore does not imply anything about omitted outcomes.
The snapshot also does not explain why prices are where they are, and no recent news or reporting is included in the evidence. Nothing here indicates how accurately markets like this have forecast past elections. Readers should check the current provider page before drawing any conclusion from these numbers.
References
- Polymarket: Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T21:00:05.939Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers the Colorado Governor Election Margin of Victory contract on Polymarket. The contract family is tied to the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election, which is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. Each bracket asks whether the margin between the top two candidates will fall within a stated range, such as 0%-5%, 5%-10%, or 40% or more, with the Democratic Party candidate winning by that margin. A separate contract asks whether the Republican Party candidate will win the election [1]. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican parties represent the 'Democrat' and 'Republican' options, and independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. If a named nominee is replaced before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1]. The rules also set tie-breaking and boundary conventions. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the rules use alphabetical order of ballot-listed last names in certain cases, and resolve to 'Other' when the tie involves only unlisted candidates [1]. The contract resolves on the official vote count once it has been made official, and it remains open if a recount is initiated before certification [1]. The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. The provider lists a contract end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z [1]. That time is the provider's listed closing point and is not the same as the date on which the official count is certified or the market resolves.
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisively the leading party wins, not only which party wins. Because the margin is based on the gap between the first- and second-place percentages of valid votes [1], the bracket contracts translate a close race into low margin ranges and a lopsided race into higher ones. The separate Republican winner contract addresses the outcome question directly [1]. Traders and readers can use the rule text to see which results count, how exact boundaries and ties are handled, and that the contract depends on the official count rather than on early or unofficial reporting [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage equals that candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1].
Which candidates count for the Democratic and Republican options?
Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the Democrat and Republican options. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1].
What happens if the margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
When does the contract resolve?
The market resolves based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the total is official, the market remains open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1].
What happens if the results are not known by the stated deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'Other' [1].
What if a nominee is replaced before election day?
The name in the contract is updated, and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee of the party [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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