Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This market asks whether Solana's price will end the window "Up" or "Down." According to the saved rules, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is the SOL/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. Because the comparison uses a time-weighted average rather than a single spot print, a reader should not assume that a price visible on another exchange at a given moment determines the outcome.
The listed end time is 2026-10-28T07:45:00.000Z [1]. The title describes the window as 3:40AM to 3:45AM ET. The listed end time is the contract's closing time, not evidence of when resolution will be announced or completed.
Reading the snapshot
The saved snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z and retrieved by PredictPedia at 2026-10-27T13:55:43.559Z [1]. The provider status in that excerpt was "active" [1]. These are historical observations, and the market may have changed since then. The prices below should not be read as live quotes.
The saved prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000 in this snapshot. The Up price is slightly higher, but the gap is 0.010 on a scale from 0 to 1. The snapshot does not explain why the prices stood where they did, and it does not show how many participants held either side.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and it is complete for that event: one of one markets was included, and the sample is not marked partial [1]. The sample does not show trading volume or liquidity, so a reader cannot judge how easily either side could be traded from this record.
What remains uncertain
The saved record does not show the price at the start of the window, the TWAP value during the window, or the final resolution. Those outcomes depend on Chainlink data that is outside this evidence. The rules also do not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome for this kind of question [1].
Readers comparing this contract with other short-window Solana markets should check each listed end time and wording separately. Different windows, data sources, or thresholds are different contracts, so a price gap between them is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 27, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "Solana Up or Down - October 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET." The contract is listed in the Crypto category and is hosted on Polymarket [1]. It asks whether the price of Solana over a specific five-minute window will finish above or below its starting level. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it resolves to "Down" [1]. The measurement is tied to a single data source. The contract names information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream, as its resolution source [1]. The rules state that the contract concerns the price shown in that Chainlink data stream for the SOL/USD pair, and not any other source or spot market [1]. A contract on the same title could therefore be judged by a different price series elsewhere, so the named data stream is the reference that matters for this contract. The contract rules list an end time of 2026-10-28T07:45:00.000Z [1]. This is a field in the listing, not confirmation that the window has closed or that the market has resolved. The source excerpt was observed at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T13:55:43.552Z, and at that observation it described the provider status as active [1]. Those times describe when the record was captured, not the present state of the market.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a narrow, rule-defined price movement rather than a general view of Solana. Because it compares a time-weighted average over the window with the price at the start of the window, the result depends on how the data stream averages prices across the five minutes, not only on the closing price [1]. Its rules also make clear that the outcome is set by the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP stream and not by other exchanges or spot markets [1]. Readers comparing this contract with other Solana or crypto markets should check each contract's resolution source and time window, since two contracts with similar titles may use different rules.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-27 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price of Solana over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and otherwise to "Down" [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules state that the contract is about the price in that stream, not any other sources or spot markets [1].
Does the listed end time mean the market has already resolved?
No. The listing shows an end time of 2026-10-28T07:45:00.000Z [1], which is a contract field. The source record was captured at 2026-10-27T12:00:05.938Z and showed the provider status as active at that time [1], so it does not establish the market's status now or its final outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.