Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
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Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract, "Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET" [1]. Its rules say it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rules name the resolution source as the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair SOL/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The contract therefore compares an average over a five-minute window with the starting price, not the price at a single moment. A reader comparing it with a spot-price market or a different provider's contract should note that the wording, measurement method, and window may differ.
The listed end time is 2026-10-24T16:10:00Z [1]. The title refers to 12:10PM ET, so the reader should confirm the time zone conversion when comparing it with other listings.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is dated 2026-10-24T00:00:06Z, and the evidence was retrieved at 2026-10-24T02:45:15Z [1]. These are two different times, and neither is the contract's close. The quoted prices are a snapshot from the observation time: Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market, one included, and no partial sample [1]. No other outcomes are present in the evidence, so no comparison with omitted outcomes is possible.
Read the two prices as a near-even split at the time of observation, and nothing more. The evidence does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants, and it does not explain why the prices stood where they did.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show the current price. The snapshot is roughly two and three quarters hours older than the retrieval record, and it predates the listed end time by many hours. The provider status is recorded as active at the time of the saved excerpt [1], but the evidence does not confirm the status at any later time.
The evidence also does not show the outcome. Resolution depends on the Chainlink TWAP data at the close, which is not included here. Any comparison with another contract should account for differences in source, window, and closing time, since prices on unlike contracts are not directly comparable.
References
- Polymarket: Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T00:00:06.197Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window binary contract on Polymarket asking whether Solana (SOL) will rise or fall over a set five-minute period. The event is titled "Solana Up or Down - October 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET" and is in the Crypto category [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Solana, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome therefore depends on an average over the window, not on the closing price alone. Because the comparison is between the TWAP and the starting price, a move can be "Up" even if the price ends the window below where it began, provided the average across the window stays at or above the starting level [1]. The rules also specify that the market concerns the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream and not any other source or spot market [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-24T16:10:00Z [1]. That corresponds to 12:10 PM Eastern Daylight Time, which is the end of the window named in the title. The contract's closing time is therefore distinct from the time the source was observed (2026-10-24T00:00:06Z) and the time the record was retrieved (2026-10-24T02:45:15Z). At retrieval, the provider reported the status as active [1]. That status describes the record at that moment and does not show how the market stands now.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Solana's average price over a specific five-minute window, as recorded by one named data stream, finishes at or above its starting price [1]. Because the window is short and the rules rely on a single data feed, the wording of the resolution method matters as much as the direction of the price. The rules state that other sources and spot markets are not used for resolution [1]. Readers comparing this contract with prices on other venues should keep that resolution method in view.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does an "Up" outcome mean for this contract?
The contract resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What data determines the result?
The resolution source is the Chainlink SOL/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets are not the basis for resolution [1].
When does the window close?
The listed end time is 2026-10-24T16:10:00Z, which matches 12:10 PM ET on the date in the title [1].
Does a price movement alone decide the outcome?
Not exactly. The test compares the time-weighted average over the window with the starting price, so the average rather than only the final price determines whether the outcome is "Up" [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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