
$2.86K
1
9

$2.86K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
In 2026 If X is the #3 most streamed Artist on Spotify's 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a low probability of 39% to Drake being the #3 most streamed artist on Spotify's global 2026 Wrapped chart. This price suggests the market views this specific outcome as unlikely, though not impossible. With only $3,000 in total volume across related markets, liquidity is thin, indicating limited trader confidence and higher volatility in these odds.
Two primary factors are suppressing Drake's odds. First, the competitive landscape for top streaming positions has solidified around a handful of mega-stars. Bad Bunny and Taylor Swift have dominated the #1 and #2 global spots in recent years, creating a fierce contest for the #3 position among artists like The Weeknd, Drake, and emerging global acts. Second, Drake's own streaming performance, while immense, has shown variability in year-end rankings. He last held the #3 global position in 2021, but was #2 in 2022 and 2023. This inconsistency makes pinpointing a return to #3 specifically difficult to forecast two years in advance.
The key catalyst will be the commercial performance of Drake's upcoming album releases in 2025 and 2026. A blockbuster album with sustained streaming hits could propel him to a higher rank, while a quieter release cycle or a massive album from a competitor like The Weeknd could push him lower. The market is also sensitive to the rise of non-English language artists, such as Peso Pluma or Karol G, who could disrupt the traditional top five. Odds will likely see significant movement following major album drops and mid-year streaming data reports in 2025 and 2026.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on identifying which musical artist will rank as the third most-streamed artist globally on Spotify in 2026, as determined by the platform's annual Spotify Wrapped summary. Spotify Wrapped is a highly anticipated year-end campaign that reveals the most popular artists, songs, albums, and podcasts based on streaming data from January 1 to October 31 of that year. The ranking is a significant cultural and commercial benchmark within the music industry, reflecting global listening trends and artist popularity. The specific focus on the number three position makes this a nuanced prediction, as it sits just outside the perennial battle for the top spot, often occupied by mega-stars like Taylor Swift and Bad Bunny, but still represents an elite tier of global streaming dominance. Interest in this market stems from the music industry's increasing reliance on streaming metrics to measure success, award contracts, and plan marketing strategies. Analysts, fans, and investors closely watch these rankings to gauge artistic influence, predict touring revenue, and understand shifting musical tastes. The prediction requires analyzing current trajectories of major artists, accounting for potential new album releases, cultural moments, and the unpredictable nature of viral trends on streaming platforms.
The Spotify Wrapped campaign was launched in 2016 as 'Year in Music,' evolving into its current branded form in 2017. It has since become a major cultural event, with users sharing their personal listening statistics on social media. Historically, the top of the global artist chart has been dominated by a small group. In 2023, Taylor Swift was the most-streamed artist globally with over 26.1 billion streams, followed by Bad Bunny. The year prior, in 2022, Bad Bunny topped the chart for the third year in a row. The competition for the number three position has been particularly volatile. In 2023, The Weeknd secured the third spot. In 2022, it was Taylor Swift. In 2021, it was Justin Bieber. This volatility highlights how the race for third place is often more dynamic than the battle for first, as it can be influenced by a single major album release or a viral moment from an artist outside the absolute top tier. The historical data shows that while a few artists are almost guaranteed a top-ten placement, their exact ranking from year to year is a key variable that prediction markets seek to forecast.
The ranking on Spotify Wrapped has substantial economic implications for artists and the music industry. A top-three placement signals immense commercial viability, which can lead to more favorable recording and publishing deals, higher guarantees for touring and festivals, and increased leverage in brand partnership negotiations. It serves as a powerful marketing tool, generating free media coverage and reinforcing an artist's brand as a global leader. For the industry at large, these rankings are a barometer of consumer behavior, influencing A&R decisions, marketing budget allocations, and strategic planning for record labels and streaming services. The data reveals which genres and artists are resonating worldwide, shaping the future direction of popular music. Beyond economics, securing a top-three spot confers significant cultural capital and prestige. It validates an artist's connection with a global audience and often translates into major award nominations and wins. For fans, these rankings spark debate and engagement, making the annual Wrapped release a shared cultural moment that reflects the year in music.
As of late 2024, the landscape is highly competitive. Taylor Swift remains a dominant force following the continuation of her Eras Tour and the release of her album 'The Tortured Poets Department.' Bad Bunny released 'Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana' in late 2023, which will influence his 2024 standing and trajectory. The Weeknd has been on a touring cycle but has not released a major studio album since 2022's 'Dawn FM,' suggesting a new project could be imminent and would significantly impact his 2026 prospects. Drake released 'For All The Dogs' in 2023 and a subsequent project in 2024, maintaining his consistent output. The current status sets the stage for 2025, which will be a critical year for album cycles that will determine an artist's momentum heading into the 2026 measurement period.
Spotify ranks artists based on the total number of streams their catalog receives from all users globally during the eligibility period, which runs from January 1 to October 31 of that year. The ranking is based on raw stream count, not unique listeners.
Yes, streams for songs where an artist is listed as a primary or featured artist are aggregated into that artist's total stream count. This means collaborations can significantly boost an artist's ranking.
While rare, it is possible if an artist has an exceptionally viral year. However, the top three positions have historically been occupied by established artists with large catalogs, as accumulating the billions of streams required typically takes more than one breakout year.
Spotify uses a global cutoff based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). The data collection period ends at the conclusion of October 31 UTC, meaning releases in late October have only a short window to accumulate streams for that year's ranking.
No, according to Spotify's official documentation, streams played in a Private Listening session are not included in the public Wrapped data or in the personal Wrapped summaries, to protect user privacy.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Drake be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 39% |
Will Bad Bunny be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 25% |
Will Taylor Swift be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 17% |
Will The Weeknd be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 9% |
Will Bruno Mars be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 7% |
Will Morgan Wallen be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Kendrick Lamar be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Beyoncé be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Chappell Roan be the #3 most streamed Artist on the 2026 Spotify Wrapped Top 10 Artist Globally chart on the date that the chart is released for 2026? | Kalshi | 2% |
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