Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z. This event is archived. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event "Michigan gas prices tomorrow" states that "If average regular gas prices for Michigan are strictly greater than X on Oct 26, 2026 according to AAA, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. Each listed market uses a different threshold X, so each one asks whether the same average would clear a different dollar level. The event's listed date is October 26, 2026, which is the date the rules reference. The excerpt does not supply a listed end time for the event.

The individual market records show an end date of 2026-11-02T14:00:00.000Z [1]. This is a field in the provider data, not an event date announced in the rules, and it differs from the October 26 date in the contract wording. Readers should use the contract rules to understand what is measured and treat the stored end date as a provider timestamp to verify before relying on it.

Reading the snapshot

The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T06:14:47.595Z [1]. They are archived snapshots, not live quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. Prices are shown for the Yes side of each threshold.

Within this sample, Yes prices decline as the threshold rises. The $4.8100 market shows 0.875, the $4.8050 market 0.805, the $4.8000 market 0.58, and the $4.7900 market 0.53. Higher thresholds such as $4.8500 (0.03) and $4.8700 (0.03) show much lower Yes prices [1]. These are different contracts about different thresholds, so their prices should not be averaged or combined into a single estimate.

The sample is partial. The provider event contains 17 markets, and 12 are included [1]. Markets were selected by Yes price descending, then volume, so the omitted five cannot be described from this evidence. Do not infer their prices or treat the 12 included markets as the full field.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show why prices sit where they do, how many traders hold each view, or how the market has moved since the snapshot. It also does not establish the AAA average on the relevant date, since no AAA data appears in the supplied sources. Because the snapshot predates the contract date, its prices cannot be read as current conditions. Differences in price between contracts also do not indicate an arbitrage opportunity, since these are separate thresholds with separate rules and may have different closing times.

References

1. Kalshi: Michigan gas prices tomorrow. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T03:00:05.873Z.