Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 29, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T15:00:06.250Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers one event: "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a different Bitcoin contract should check which data source and window each one uses, since a contract referencing another feed or time range would not measure the same thing.
The listed end time is 2026-10-29T22:10:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, so readers should convert the window to UTC before comparing it with other listings.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices are Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These values were observed at 2026-10-29T15:00:06.250Z and retrieved at 2026-10-29T17:22:39.462Z [1]. The observation is therefore more than two hours older than the retrieval time, and it is not a live quote. The provider status at retrieval was "active" [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it says nothing about how easily a position could be entered or exited.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record reports one total market and one included market, with no partial sample [1]. Because no other outcomes or contracts appear in the saved data, there is nothing to compare this result against across platforms, and no reason to infer anything from the price gap alone.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the prices stand where they do. It also does not show the Bitcoin price at the start of the window or any TWAP value, so the outcome cannot be determined from the supplied material. The contract had not closed at the retrieval time, and no resolution is recorded [1].
Readers should also note that the provider's sample definition describes saved markets only and does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1]. Any later prices would require a new snapshot with its own observation time.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T15:00:06.250Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET" [1]. The contract is in the crypto category and asks whether Bitcoin's price will rise or fall over a five-minute window stated in its title [1]. The resolution rule is specific. The market resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The rule therefore compares an averaged price across the window with the starting price, rather than comparing the price at the end of the window with the price at the start. The source identifies the resolution data as the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and states that the market concerns the price in that stream, not the price on any other source or spot market [1]. Anyone reading the contract should therefore check the named data stream, since prices on other venues are not the reference. The listed end time is 2026-10-29T22:10:00.000Z [1]. The source also reports the provider status as active at retrieval [1]. The available evidence does not show a resolved outcome, so this entry describes the contract terms only. The outcome prices in the saved sample were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These figures are snapshot prices from the provider observation time, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities of a rise or fall.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the stated five-minute window ends at or above the level at the start of that window [1]. Because the comparison uses an averaged price, a single price spike at the end of the window does not by itself determine the result, and the rule's wording is the reference for how the outcome is decided [1]. The contract also shows how a short-duration crypto market can be defined in narrow terms. Its title sets the window, its rules name the data stream, and its listed end time fixes when trading is scheduled to close [1]. Readers can use these terms to understand what a Bitcoin Up or Down contract does and does not measure.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 15:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the outcome of this contract decided?
The market resolves to "Up" if the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The resolution source is the BTC/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The source states that the market is about the price in that stream and not any other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the listed trading period end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-29T22:10:00.000Z [1].
Do the outcome prices show the probability that Bitcoin rises?
The saved sample shows Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 at the provider observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and the source does not present them as verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.