Chipotle comparable sales growth in 2026
K 25.0K contracts
1
11
Chipotle comparable sales growth in 2026
K 25.0K contracts
1
11
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above -0.5% at 96.5%.
Kalshi
- Above -0.5%96.5%
- Above 0.0%95.5%
- Above 0.5%94.5%
- Above 1.0%79.5%
- Above 1.5%50.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 25.0K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
comparable restaurant sales growth in 2026 If Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports above X comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market refers to the annual figure reported in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi event asks whether Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. will report comparable restaurant sales growth above a stated threshold for fiscal 2026. The rules say that if the company "reports above X comparable restaurant sales growth in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The figure is "the annual figure reported in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.'s full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release" [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract with its own Yes and No prices. The source also states that the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
Reading the snapshot
The saved data was observed at 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-29T07:04:32.161Z, so these are the prices from that observation, not live quotes. All 11 markets from this single Kalshi event are included, and the sample is not marked partial. Within this event, the Yes prices fall as the threshold rises. The 0.0% contract shows Yes at 0.86, the 1.0% contract at 0.795, the 2.0% contract at 0.345, the 3.0% contract at 0.295, and the 4.5% contract at 0.05.
These prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not include volume, order book depth, or trader counts, so it cannot show how liquid any contract is or how many participants hold a view. No other platform is in the sample, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. A difference in price between two thresholds reflects two different questions and is not an arbitrage signal.
What remains uncertain
The market records list an end date of 2027-05-03T05:00:00.000Z, but the provider page states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The contract rules do not announce when the earnings release will occur, so the listed date should not be read as a scheduled reporting event. The sample warning also notes that including all saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Because the saved list is limited to these thresholds, no conclusion should be drawn about thresholds that were not included. The evidence also does not explain why prices sit where they do.
References
- Kalshi: Chipotle comparable sales growth in 2026. Provider data observed 2026-10-29T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 29, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a Kalshi market on the comparable restaurant sales growth that Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports for its fiscal 2026 year [1]. The underlying company is an American fast casual chain that specializes in bowls, tacos, and Mission burritos made to order, and it had 4,000 locations as of December 2025 [2]. The contract asks whether the company's reported annual comparable restaurant sales growth will come in above a stated threshold. According to the contract rules, a market resolves to Yes if the reported figure is above its threshold. The figure in question is the annual number in Chipotle's full fiscal year or fourth quarter earnings release [1]. The contract also states that it will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The saved event lists an end date of May 3, 2027 for each market, but this is a contract date rather than an announced reporting date, and the rules do not state when the relevant earnings release will be published. The event contains a ladder of markets, each asking whether growth will exceed a different threshold, from above 0.0% up to above 4.5% [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no question, so the ladder should be read as a set of related but distinct contracts. The prices shown with each market are snapshots taken at a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome. The volume figures in the market data describe trading activity, not liquidity or the number of traders. Kalshi states that it is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. [1]. The platform is the provider of the contract, while the company is the source of the figure the contract depends on.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single reported figure: the annual comparable restaurant sales growth Chipotle reports for fiscal 2026 in its full year or fourth quarter earnings release [1]. Because the markets use different thresholds, the contract family offers a way to ask how the reported number compares with several levels, from flat growth to growth above 4.5% [1]. Resolution therefore depends on the content of that earnings release, not on any market price or on the time a market was observed.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-29 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether a Chipotle market resolves to Yes?
A market resolves to Yes if Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. reports comparable restaurant sales growth above the threshold named in that market for fiscal 2026. The figure is the annual number in the full fiscal year or Q4 earnings release [1].
Why are there many Chipotle markets under one event?
The event includes several markets with different thresholds, ranging from above 0.0% to above 4.5% [1]. Each market is a separate contract that asks whether the reported figure will exceed its own threshold.
Does a market price show the probability that Chipotle will hit a threshold?
The saved prices are snapshots from a specific observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they should not be read as confirmed chances of any outcome [1].
Is Kalshi connected to Chipotle?
The contract rules state that Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. [1].
Does the contract close on a set date?
The rules say the market will close and expire early if the event occurs [1]. The saved markets list an end date of May 3, 2027, but that is a contract date, not an announced date for the earnings release.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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