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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

"Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office

Name: "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office
End: 2026-05-04T12:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$1.01K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

"Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office

Vol

$1.01K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $1.01K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $1.01K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?	Poly	34%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?	Poly	33%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Poly	31%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m?	Poly	11%
Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

34%

Top Probability

$1.01K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to how much "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** May 4, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** This market will resolve according to how much "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to how much "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this mark"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $1.0K
* **Total Liquidity:** $5.7K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.18)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $830
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $16
  DATA: [Yes: 31.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $130
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 6m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $14
  DATA: [Yes: 32.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will "Hokum" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m?
- **Polymarket** (End: May 4, 2026): Vol $15
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture