Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEntertainment

The Folk of the Air TV Series: Cast

Total Volume

$911.20

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

The Folk of the Air TV Series: Cast

Vol

$911.20

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $911.20

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $911.20

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

26 markets tracked

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(26)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Lee Pace be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Lena Headey be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Kit Connor be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Ian Somerhalder be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Hannah Waddingham be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Gavin Casalegno be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Finn Wolfhard be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Felix Mallard be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Freya Allan be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Emily Alyn Lind be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Dafne Keen be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will David Harbour be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Deva Cassel be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Courtney Eaton be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Ben Barnes be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Avantika be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	10%
Will Rebecca Ferguson be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	9%
Will William Franklyn-Miller be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	6%
Will Sadie Sink be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	6%
Will Rudy Pankow be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	6%
Will Rosamund Pike be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

10%

Top Probability

$911.20

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before 2028 If X is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** The Folk of the Air TV Series: Cast
**Category:** Entertainment | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2028

If X is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If William Franklyn-Miller is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $911
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will William Franklyn-Miller be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $110
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Sadie Sink be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rosamund Pike be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Rudy Pankow be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $302
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Rebecca Ferguson be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $122
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $32
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Lee Pace be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $28
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Lena Headey be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Kit Connor be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Ian Somerhalder be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Hannah Waddingham be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Gavin Casalegno be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Finn Wolfhard be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $3
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Felix Mallard be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Freya Allan be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Emily Alyn Lind be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will Dafne Keen be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will David Harbour be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $92
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Deva Cassel be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Courtney Eaton be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Ben Barnes be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Avantika be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2028): Vol $106
  DATA: [Yes: 10.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEntertainment

The Folk of the Air TV Series: Cast

Volume$911.20

Markets26

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KALSHI

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

If Mimi Keene is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

If Malia Baker is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

If Lorenzo Zurzolo is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

If Lola Tung is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 10.0¢No 90.0¢

KALSHITech

Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

If Louis Partridge is cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Average Yes Price

9¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/n2-bZD" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="The Folk of the Air TV Series: Cast"></iframe>

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Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

The Folk of the Air TV Series: Cast

Markets (26)

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

The Folk of the Air TV Series: Cast

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Mimi Keene be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Malia Baker be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lorenzo Zurzolo be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Lola Tung be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

Will Louis Partridge be cast in Amazon Prime Video’s television adaptation of Holly Black’s The Folk of the Air series?

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