Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied market asks which team defense/special teams (D/ST) unit will finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season (Weeks 1 through 18) as the highest-scoring D/ST under ESPN Fantasy Sports default scoring [1]. Ties are settled first by higher fantasy points per game for the 2026 regular season, then alphabetically by team name [1].

The rules also set a fallback. If the regular season is cancelled, postponed past January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or no leader can be determined in that window, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. That is a closing time for trading, not the date the outcome is known, and it is not an announced event date.

Each team has its own Yes/No contract within this event. Read each contract as a claim about one team only.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-16T06:13:28.011Z [1]. They describe that moment and may no longer reflect current quotes.

Among the included markets, the Yes prices were: Colts 0.491, Vikings 0.3215, Chargers 0.2535, Chiefs 0.1925, 49ers 0.19, Lions 0.15, Bengals 0.0425, Jets 0.042, Rams 0.0405, Falcons 0.04, Commanders 0.04, and Cardinals 0.04 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. Because each contract is priced separately, the Yes prices should not be added or averaged into a combined forecast.

The Colts contract had the highest included Yes price at this snapshot. The other included teams were lower, but that comparison only covers the included contracts.

What remains uncertain

The sample is partial. The provider event lists 33 markets, and 12 are included [1]. The selection rule ranks included markets by Yes price, then volume [1]. The omitted 21 markets are not shown here, so this response cannot describe the full field or rank teams beyond the included set.

Volume is not liquidity, and it is not a count of traders. The evidence does not show how many people hold these positions or why prices were at these levels. The evidence also does not include recent news, team performance, or any reason for price movement.

Because the contract wording is specific to ESPN default scoring and the stated tiebreakers, the same team name in a different market or on another platform may not be comparable. Price differences between unlike contracts do not, by themselves, indicate an opportunity.

References

1. Polymarket: Fantasy Football: 2026-27 D/ST Points Leader. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T06:00:05.833Z.