S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
K 2.7K contracts
1
1
S&P 500 Daily Up/Down
K 2.7K contracts
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 20, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Above 7690.81 at 56.5%.
Kalshi
- Above 7690.8156.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 2.7K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 20, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 20, 2026 If the end-of-day price of the S&P 500 on October 20, 2026 is above 7690.81, then the market resolves to Yes. The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This snapshot covers one Kalshi market in the S&P 500 Daily Up/Down event. The rules state: "If the end-of-day price of the S&P 500 on October 19, 2026 is above 7659.41, then the market resolves to Yes. The target value is the end-of-day/closing price of the prior week's close." [1] The market title is narrower in time wording: "Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.41 on Oct 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT?" [1] Readers should treat the rules text as the resolution reference and note that the title's 4pm EDT wording and the rules' "end-of-day" wording describe the same date but are phrased differently.
The provider lists the event as active but does not supply a listed end time in the source excerpt. [1] The saved market record includes an endDate of 2026-10-26T23:00:00.000Z. [1] That field is a stored timestamp, not a statement in the rules that the event closes or resolves at that moment, so it should not be read as the settlement time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation time is 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z. The source was retrieved at 2026-10-18T03:16:36.557Z, and the page was not archived. [1] These are different events: the observation is the provider data point, the retrieval is when this record was collected, and resolution has not occurred according to the supplied evidence.
The saved quotes are Yes at 0.365 and No at 0.635. [1] These are snapshot prices from one observation, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They describe what the saved record showed at that time, and they do not indicate what a trader could fill at now or how many traders hold each view. The sample covers one market from one platform, and the coverage record shows 1 of 1 markets included with no partial sample. [1] Because no other contracts were saved for this event, there are no other outcomes to compare against it.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not explain why the quoted prices are where they are. It also does not show the closing S&P 500 value, whether the provider's listed end time matches the 4pm EDT title wording, or any changes after the observation time. Comparisons with other platforms or other threshold contracts would require separate, matching rules and should not be made from this record alone.
References
- Kalshi: S&P 500 Daily Up/Down. Provider data observed 2026-10-18T03:00:06.384Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 18, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is a daily yes or no market on the S&P 500, a United States stock market index. The saved Kalshi event, titled "S&P 500 Daily Up/Down", asks whether the end-of-day price of the index on October 19, 2026 will be above 7659.41 [1]. The market's question is worded as "Will the S&P 500 be above 7659.41 on Oct 19, 2026 at 4pm EDT?" [1]. The provider's rules say the market resolves to Yes if the end-of-day price is above that threshold [1]. The rules also state that the target value is the end-of-day or closing price of the prior week's close [1]. Read together with the threshold, this means the 7659.41 level is set by reference to a prior weekly close, and the question is whether the index closes above that level on the stated date. The provider lists the event as active [1]. The contract's rules describe the threshold and resolution condition, so a reader should check the provider's own wording for how the target value is calculated before relying on it. The Wikipedia reference for the index is a short summary article on its closing milestones, which describes the subject as a summary of closing milestones of the S&P 500 Index, a United States stock market index [2]. That article does not add information about this specific contract. The saved market snapshot was observed on October 18, 2026 at 03:00 UTC, and the record was retrieved shortly after [1]. At that observation, the Yes outcome was priced at 0.365 and the No outcome at 0.635 [1]. These are snapshot prices from the saved record. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the index closing above the threshold.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the S&P 500 closes above a specific level on one trading day, October 19, 2026, at the 4pm EDT check named in the market title [1]. Its price reflects the market's pricing at the time of the snapshot, which is useful for seeing how the outcome was priced then, but it does not show the index's value at any later time [1]. Because the event contains one market and that market is fully included in the saved record, the snapshot reflects the only contract saved for this event [1]. The provider notes that its sample does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-18 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Yes outcome require?
The market resolves to Yes if the end-of-day price of the S&P 500 on October 19, 2026 is above 7659.41 [1]. The rules describe the target value as the end-of-day or closing price of the prior week's close [1].
What does the price shown for this contract mean?
The saved record shows Yes at 0.365 and No at 0.635 at the observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1].
Does the event list every possible outcome?
The saved event contains one market, and that market is fully included in the record [1]. The provider states that this does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
