Toulouse vs Paris FC: Spread
K 1.9K contracts
1
4
Toulouse vs Paris FC: Spread
K 1.9K contracts
1
4
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 1.9K contracts
Reported volume · provider units
4
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
TOU vs PAR (Oct 17) If Toulouse wins by more than X goals in the Toulouse vs Paris FC professional French Women's Première Ligue soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
These contracts come from one Kalshi event, "Toulouse vs Paris FC: Spread" [1]. The rules state that if Toulouse wins by more than X goals in the professional French Women's Première Ligue game originally scheduled for Oct 17, 2026, the market resolves to Yes. The margin is measured after "90 minutes plus stoppage time," and the rules state that the score "does not include extra time or penalties" [1]. The four markets apply this rule to different thresholds: Toulouse by more than 2.5 goals, Toulouse by more than 1.5 goals, Paris FC by more than 2.5 goals, and Paris FC by more than 1.5 goals [1]. Because each contract uses different wording and a different threshold, the four prices describe four different events and should not be read as one combined estimate.
Reading the snapshot
The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z and retrieved at 2026-10-17T11:19:00.929Z [1]. Each of the four markets shows a Yes price of 0.5 and a No price of 0.5 [1]. These are snapshot prices at the observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence does not explain why the prices sit at these levels, and it does not show which team is expected to win or by what margin.
The coverage record lists four total markets, all four included, with partialSample set to false [1]. The saved sample is therefore complete for this event. The sample warning adds that this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
All four markets list an end date of 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z [1]. The contract text says the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1], and the provider states that the listed end time is "not supplied" [1]. The end date is therefore a provider field, not a confirmed settlement time.
What remains uncertain
The evidence contains no match result, so it does not show whether any threshold was met or how any market resolved. Volume, trader counts, and liquidity are not in the supplied evidence, so a price of 0.5 cannot be read as depth or agreement among traders. Prices may have changed since the observation time shown above.
References
- Kalshi: Toulouse vs Paris FC: Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T09:00:05.996Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a Kalshi event titled "Toulouse vs Paris FC: Spread." It concerns a professional French Women's Première Ligue soccer game between Toulouse and Paris FC that was originally scheduled for October 17, 2026 [1]. Unlike a standard match-winner contract, a spread contract asks whether one team wins by more than a stated number of goals. According to the event rules, a market resolves to Yes if the named team wins by more than the stated goal threshold after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are not included in that measure [1]. The rules also state that each market closes and expires after a winner is declared [1]. The event rules say the listing does not supply an end time, so the date recorded in the saved market data should not be read as an announced match date or settlement date. The saved event contains four markets. They ask whether Toulouse wins by more than 2.5 goals, whether Toulouse wins by more than 1.5 goals, whether Paris FC wins by more than 2.5 goals, and whether Paris FC wins by more than 1.5 goals [1]. These thresholds are separate contracts. Each has its own Yes and No outcomes, and a result can satisfy some thresholds and not others. For example, a win by exactly two goals would satisfy the 1.5 threshold but not the 2.5 threshold. The event page states that Kalshi is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or officially connected to the governing league [1]. All four saved markets are included in the sample, but that does not establish that the provider lists every possible goal-margin threshold for this match.
Why It Matters
This contract measures the margin of victory rather than the winner. Each market asks whether a specific team's goal margin, measured after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, exceeds a named threshold [1]. Because extra time and penalties are excluded, a match that is level after regulation would not satisfy any of the winning-margin thresholds in the saved set [1]. The price shown for each outcome is a snapshot of trading activity at the time it was recorded. It is not an executable quote and is not a verified probability of the result. Price differences between related contracts, such as the 1.5 and 2.5 thresholds for the same team, reflect how those contracts were priced at that moment and do not on their own indicate an opportunity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome require in this contract?
A Yes outcome requires the named team to win by more than the stated goal threshold after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are not included in the measure [1].
Does a penalty shootout affect these markets?
No. The rules state that the measure does not include extra time or penalties, so the margin is judged on the regular playing time only [1].
Why are there separate markets for 1.5 and 2.5 goals?
The saved event lists separate contracts for each team at two thresholds, 1.5 goals and 2.5 goals [1]. Each contract resolves independently based on the stated threshold.
Does a price show the chance that a team will win by a certain margin?
No. The prices in the saved snapshot are recorded trading values at a specific time. They are not executable quotes and are not verified probabilities of the match result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
