BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether the BNB price will rise or fall over a five-minute window. The market states that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The title gives the window as 9:50AM to 9:55AM ET [1].
The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink. The rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a BNB price shown elsewhere should expect different results if that other source uses a different method, such as a spot price rather than a TWAP.
The listed end time is 2026-10-22T13:55:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should check both when comparing windows.
Reading the snapshot
The saved market shows two outcomes. "Up" was priced at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. The prices were observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-22T07:02:14.235Z [1]. The prices describe that earlier observation, not live conditions at the time you read this.
The "Up" price is slightly above the "Down" price in this snapshot. That difference is small, and the evidence does not explain it. The snapshot does not show volume, trade counts, or the depth of the order book, so it cannot tell you how much liquidity sits behind these prices.
What remains uncertain
The coverage record reports one market in the saved event, with no partial sample flag [1]. This means the saved event contains this single market. The provider's sample warning says the record does not establish that providers list every possible real-world outcome [1]. This snapshot covers only the Polymarket event saved here.
No other platform's prices are included, so this snapshot cannot be compared with prices elsewhere. A price difference between two contracts with different wording, resolution sources, or close times does not by itself indicate a tradable opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-duration crypto contract on Polymarket asking whether the price of BNB will rise or fall over a five-minute window, titled "BNB Up or Down - October 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET" [1]. The contract is categorized under crypto and is one of a series of similar windows that the provider lists by title [1]. The saved provider record describes the event as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-22T13:55:00Z [1]. The contract's outcome is not based on a simple comparison of a spot quote at two moments. Under the stated rules, the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the window named in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. If the average is below the starting price, it resolves to Down [1]. Because the calculation is an average across the whole window, a brief move at the end of the period does not by itself determine the result. The beginning-of-window price is the reference point for the comparison [1]. The rules name a specific resolution source. The contract uses Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second averaging configuration, and it states that other sources or spot markets are not used for resolution [1]. A trader reading the market should therefore focus on the Chainlink series rather than on exchange prices or other tickers, even if those prices appear similar. The evidence here is a single saved event with one listed outcome pair, Up and Down, and no other markets from the provider in the sample [1]. The sample covers this event only and does not describe other BNB contracts on the same platform. Nothing in the supplied material explains price movements or describes how traders have behaved on this contract.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average BNB/USD price, as reported in a specified Chainlink data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of a five-minute window [1]. Because the rules define both the averaging method and the data source, the contract isolates one defined price series rather than a general view of BNB's market value. Readers who want to understand the contract should read the resolution text closely, since the same asset can produce different results under different averaging or reference-price rules [1]. The listed prices in the saved snapshot are shown separately in the dated status and do not establish what the market will ultimately resolve to [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether the market resolves Up or Down?
The market resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window, and Down otherwise [1].
Which price data does the contract use?
The rules specify Chainlink's BNB/USD TWAP data stream and state that other sources or spot markets are not used for resolution [1].
Does a price at the end of the window decide the outcome?
The stated rules use a time-weighted average over the whole window compared with the starting price, so the outcome is not defined by a single end-of-window quote [1].
Is the listed end time the same as when the market resolves?
The provider record lists an end time of 2026-10-22T13:55:00Z [1]. The supplied evidence does not show an actual resolution result or a resolution timestamp, so the listed end time should not be read as confirmation of how the market settled.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.