Name: Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-04-21T00:00:00.000Z

PredictPedia

Markets Wiki

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory | PredictPedia

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $12.33K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $12.33K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?	Poly	31%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?	Poly	21%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?	Poly	21%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?	Poly	16%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?	Poly	9%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?	Poly	8%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

31%

Top Probability

$12.33K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exac

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, April 17, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 21, 2026 (4 days left)
**Time Pressure:** High

**Description:** Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.

If the margin of victory falls exac

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $12.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $74.9K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.16)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 12-15%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $508
  DATA: [Yes: 7.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum fail to pass?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.2% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 69.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $464
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 9-12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $611
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics