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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

Name: Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-04-21T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$543.61K

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Markets

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Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory

Vol

$543.61K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $543.61K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $543.61K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

3 markets tracked

Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?	Poly	95%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?	Poly	1%
Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

95%

Top Probability

$543.61K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/). This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum. If the margin of victory falls exac

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Virginia Redistricting Referendum: Margin of Victory
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Apr 21, 2026 (Ended)
**Time Pressure:** Expired

**Description:** Pending legal challenges, Virginia is scheduled to vote in a special election on April 21, 2026, over a referendum to amend the state constitution, allowing the Virginia General Assembly to redraw its congressional districts (see: https://www.elections.virginia.gov/election-law/proposed-amendment-for-april-2026-special-election/).

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the valid “Yes” and valid “No” votes cast in this referendum.

If the margin of victory falls exac

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $417.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $43.3K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 9.63)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 3-6%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $169.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 94.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.4% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by less than 3%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $175.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 6-9%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 21, 2026): Vol $72.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics