Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This event is a set of Polymarket contracts on how many rushing yards Drake Maye records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season. Each contract asks whether he reaches a listed threshold. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Yes" if the number of rushing yards Drake Maye records during the 2026-27 NFL regular season equals or exceeds the listed number" [1]. The four thresholds in this snapshot are 224.5, 424.5, 624.5, and 824.5 yards.

The rules also set several special cases. If Maye does not play in the season for any reason, the market resolves to "No" [1]. If the season ends early, resolution uses available official data for completed games [1]. The rules also list a "50-50" outcome for cancellation or certain postponement after January 26, 2027, 11:59 PM ET [1]. That date is part of the contract wording, not an announced event date.

The listed end time for all four contracts is 2027-01-27T04:59:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract closing time shown in the data, not a record of when the season ended or when any contract resolved.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T03:00:06Z, and this review retrieved the source at 2026-10-16T05:21:19Z [1]. The prices describe that observation only. They are not executable quotes, verified probabilities, or current prices at the time you read this.

The quoted Yes prices were 0.9 for 224.5 or more, 0.56 for 424.5 or more, 0.225 for 624.5 or more, and 0.124 for 824.5 or more [1]. Each threshold is a separate contract, so the prices should not be combined, averaged, or treated as a single distribution. The data does not include volume or trader counts, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many people hold each view.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all four saved Polymarket markets for this event, and the saved coverage is marked as not partial [1]. The source still warns that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only one provider appears in the evidence, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

The evidence does not explain why prices were at these levels, and it contains no news about Maye's status or team situation. It also gives no information about past forecasting performance. Differences in the thresholds and in the cancellation wording should be checked against the full contract rules before comparing any two contracts.

References

1. Polymarket: Pro Football: Drake Maye 2026-27 Regular Season Rushing Yards. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T03:00:06.094Z.