Snapshot observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This is a single Polymarket contract from the event "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET" [1]. Its rules say the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].

The listed end time is 2026-10-28T14:55:00.000Z [1]. That is the contract's closing time, not a record of when resolution occurred. The evidence does not show a resolution outcome.

Reading the snapshot

The saved observation time is 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-28T04:10:11.007Z [1]. The prices below describe the market at the observation time, not necessarily at retrieval:

• Up: 0.505
• Down: 0.495 [1]

These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and this single snapshot does not explain why the prices stand where they do. Volume data is not included in the evidence, so nothing can be said about liquidity or the number of participants.

The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows 1 total market, 1 included, and no partial sample [1]. Because this is a binary contract with both outcomes shown, no outcome is omitted from the sample.

Other contracts with similar titles, such as different time windows or assets, use their own rules and closing times. Their prices should not be compared directly with this one, and differences between them do not create an arbitrage opportunity.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not establish the BNB price at the start of the window or during it, nor the final TWAP value. It also does not show the current price, whether the market is still trading at the time you read this, or how the outcome was settled. The provider status is listed as "active" at the time of the saved record [1]. Readers should check the live Polymarket page and the Chainlink data stream directly for any later information.

References

1. Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-28T03:00:06.402Z.