Snapshot observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event asks about the second half of the Minnesota vs Houston game, not the final result. If X wins the 2nd half, including overtime, the market resolves to Yes [1]. The rules also state that "Only points scored during the 2nd half, including overtime, count towards this market" [1]. Three separate yes or no contracts are saved for this event: Houston wins the 2nd half, Minnesota wins the 2nd half, and Tie in the 2nd half [1]. Because each contract has its own title, the wording of each one matters when comparing them.

The rules describe the game as "originally scheduled for Nov 4, 2026" [1]. That phrasing identifies the scheduled date, not a confirmed playing date or result. All three saved markets list a close time of 2026-11-07T01:30:00.000Z [1]. The rules say the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1], so the listed time should not be read as a guaranteed end point. The provider's listed end time is recorded as "not supplied" in the event excerpt [1].

Reading the snapshot

The prices were observed at 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z and retrieved at 2026-11-04T06:10:58.307Z [1]. These are snapshot values from that observation, not current quotes for today, and they are not executable prices.

At that observation, the Yes prices were 0.615 for Houston, 0.315 for Minnesota, and 0.07 for a tie in the second half [1]. Read as quoted snapshot values, these three Yes prices sum to 1.00. Houston had the highest Yes price in this sample. The prices show only that snapshot. They do not explain why the figures were set or how traders view the game.

Volume is not part of this reading. The saved data does not include liquidity or the number of traders, so it supports no conclusion about market depth or agreement.

What remains uncertain

All three saved markets from this single Kalshi event are included, and the sample is not marked as partial [1]. The saved note still says this does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The sample covers only this event, so it should not be compared with prices from other platforms or other events. Contracts with different wording, such as second-half scope versus full-game outcomes, are not directly comparable.

The evidence does not show whether the game has been played, what happened in the second half, or whether anything has changed since the observation. A difference between contract prices is not an arbitrage opportunity on its own.

References

1. Kalshi: Minnesota vs Houston: 2nd Half Winner. Provider data observed 2026-11-03T21:00:06.031Z.