Chapecoense vs Fluminense
PM $0 · K 1.91 contracts
3
9
Chapecoense vs Fluminense
PM $0 · K 1.91 contracts
3
9
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0 · K 1.91 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
CHA vs FLU (Oct 24) If X wins the Chapecoense vs Fluminense professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties, then the market resolves to Yes. The following market refers to the Chapecoense vs Fluminense professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, does not include extra time or penalties. If the game ends in a tie, the market called "Tie" resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners. This market will close and expire after a winner is declared.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The Kalshi excerpt describes the Chapecoense vs Fluminense Brasileiro Serie A game originally scheduled for October 24, 2026. Its wording judges the outcome after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, without extra time or penalties [1]. Under that wording, the "Tie" contract resolves to Yes if the game ends level [1]. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours away, the market resolves to a fair price under its rules [1].
Polymarket's full-time markets sit under a separate event page for the October 24, 2026 game [2]. The supplied titles ask whether Fluminense FC wins on 2026-10-24, whether the match ends in a draw, and whether Chapecoense wins on 2026-10-24 [2]. The supplied excerpt does not include full resolution text, so its treatment of extra time or penalties cannot be confirmed from this evidence.
Polymarket's halftime event covers "halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time" [3]. These are different questions from the full-time contracts and should not be compared directly.
Reading the snapshot
The Polymarket and Kalshi records were observed at 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z [1][2][3]. This summary was retrieved later, at 2026-10-17T07:15:42.683Z. These are snapshot prices, not live or executable quotes.
On Kalshi, the Fluminense wins Yes price is 0.52, the Tie Yes price is 0.2525, and the Chapecoense wins Yes price is 0.2075 [1]. On Polymarket's full-time event, the Yes prices are 0.515 for Fluminense, 0.265 for a draw, and 0.215 for Chapecoense [2]. On the halftime event, the Yes prices are 0.42 for a halftime draw, 0.39 for Fluminense leading, and 0.185 for Chapecoense leading [3].
The sample reports all three markets for each of the three provider events, so no omitted outcomes are indicated for these samples [1][2][3]. The sources do not establish that every real-world outcome is listed. Price differences between platforms may reflect different wording and close times, and they do not establish an arbitrage opportunity.
Listed close times also differ. Polymarket's full-time and halftime events list 2026-10-24T22:30:00.000Z [2][3]. Kalshi's market records list 2026-10-26T22:30:00.000Z [1], while its excerpt gives no listed end time and says the market "will close and expire after a winner is declared" [1].
What remains uncertain
These prices describe one observation and may not reflect current conditions. The evidence does not show trading volume, liquidity, or how many participants hold each position. It also does not explain why prices sit where they do. Because the outcomes are not combined into one figure, this summary offers no single probability. Cancellation or rescheduling could change settlement under the Kalshi terms [1], and the full Polymarket rules are not in the supplied excerpts [2].
References
- Kalshi: Chapecoense vs Fluminense. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
- Polymarket: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Fluminense FC. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
- Polymarket: Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Fluminense FC - Halftime Result. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCOverview
PredictPedia's evidence covers a scheduled Brazilian Série A match between Associação Chapecoense de Futebol and Fluminense FC, listed for October 24, 2026. The contracts are prediction-market questions about the match result, offered on Kalshi and Polymarket. The club is described as a Brazilian football club based in Chapecó in the state of Santa Catarina [4]. The evidence does not show the match result, and the contracts below describe rules and prices rather than an outcome. The main Kalshi contracts ask whether Chapecoense wins, Fluminense wins, or the game ends in a tie. The rules say the result is judged after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and that extra time and penalties are not included [1]. Polymarket offers a parallel full-match event with win and draw questions, plus a separate halftime event covering the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time [2][3]. The contract rules also cover unusual cases. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to a time more than 48 hours away, the Kalshi market resolves to a fair price under its stated rules [1]. The Kalshi contracts close and expire after a winner is declared [1]. Polymarket's listed end time for the full-match event is 2026-10-24T22:30:00.000Z [2], while the Kalshi event lists an end date of 2026-10-26T22:30:00.000Z in the market data. These are listed dates in the contract records, not confirmed times for kickoff or the final whistle.
Why It Matters
The contracts measure a narrow set of outcomes for one scheduled match. The full-match Kalshi rules count the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a tie resolves the tie contract to Yes [1]. Extra time and penalties are excluded, which means a match that goes beyond regulation does not change how the full-time contracts are judged under the stated rules [1]. Polymarket's full-match and halftime events use separate questions, so a contract about the halftime score measures a different window than one about the final result [2][3]. The price snapshots are useful for seeing how the market priced each question at one observation time. The Kalshi snapshot, observed at 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z, shows Fluminense wins at 0.52 Yes, the tie at 0.2525 Yes, and Chapecoense wins at 0.2075 Yes [1]. The Polymarket full-match snapshot, retrieved at the same time, shows Fluminense winning at 0.515 Yes, a draw at 0.265 Yes, and Chapecoense winning at 0.215 Yes [2]. The halftime snapshot shows a halftime draw at 0.42 Yes, Fluminense leading at halftime at 0.39 Yes, and Chapecoense leading at halftime at 0.185 Yes [3]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and they should not be read as current prices. Each provider's three saved markets for these events are included in the sample, but that does not establish that the providers list every possible outcome. The prices from different providers and events are not a basis for an arbitrage conclusion, since the contracts have different rules, windows, and close times.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does extra time or a penalty shootout count toward the full-match contracts?
No. The Kalshi rules say the result is judged after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and that the game does not include extra time or penalties [1].
What happens if the match ends in a tie?
On Kalshi, the market called Tie resolves to Yes if the game ends in a tie under the stated rules [1].
What happens if the game is cancelled or rescheduled?
If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away, the Kalshi market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules [1].
Is the halftime market the same as the full-match market?
No. The halftime event covers the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, with home, draw, and away outcomes for that window [3].
Why do the listed end dates differ between providers?
The Kalshi market data lists an end date of 2026-10-26T22:30:00.000Z, while the Polymarket records list 2026-10-24T22:30:00.000Z [1][2]. The listed dates are contract record fields, not confirmed match times or announced resolution times.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
