What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
PM $3.47M · K 9.25M contracts
2
31
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
PM $3.47M · K 9.25M contracts
2
31
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is ↑ $100 at 91%, and on Kalshi it is $115.01 or above at 39.9%.
Polymarket
- ↑ $10091%
- ↓ $9554.5%
- ↑ $10542.5%
- ↓ $9022.5%
- ↑ $11016%
Kalshi
- $115.01 or above39.9%
- $120.01 or above31.2%
- $125.01 or above23.4%
- $130.01 or above18.6%
- $135.01 or above14.9%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $3.47M · K 9.25M contracts
Reported volume · provider units
31
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-14T21:00:05.827Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied event asks, "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?" [1]. Each market in the sample is a separate threshold contract labeled either (LOW) or (HIGH) at a dollar level, such as "Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?" [1]. The labels indicate different directions, so a LOW contract and a HIGH contract answer different questions even at similar levels. The excerpt does not include full resolution rules, so this description relies only on the market titles. The listed end time for these markets is 2026-11-01T03:59:59.999Z [1]. This is a listed close time, not a resolution. The evidence contains no resolution outcome for any market.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-14T21:00:05.827Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-14T21:07:54.023Z [1]. The prices describe that moment only and should not be read as current. Among the included markets, the (LOW) $95 contract shows a Yes price of 0.9995, and the (HIGH) $125 contract shows a Yes price of 0.03 [1]. These are snapshot values, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence contains no volume or trader counts, so the prices cannot be read as measures of liquidity or agreement.
The sample is partial. The Polymarket event contains 21 markets, and 12 are included [1]. Markets were selected by finite Yes price, highest first, then by volume [1]. The nine omitted markets are not displayed, so they should not be assumed to have lower prices. The 12 included markets should not be treated as the full field, and their rankings should not be combined with other events or providers.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices sit where they do, and it contains no news or context about WTI. Only one source is supplied, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Differences in price between LOW and HIGH contracts, or between thresholds, do not by themselves indicate an arbitrage opportunity. Readers who need the exact resolution criteria should consult the full contract rules, which are not included in this excerpt.
References
- Polymarket: What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?. Provider data observed 2026-10-14T21:00:05.827Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 14, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in October 2026?" [1]. The event is grouped under the finance category and is listed as active, with a listed end time of 2026-11-01T03:59:59.999Z [1]. That listed end time is the contract's closing rule, not a record of when any outcome was determined. The event contains separate yes or no contracts on whether WTI crude oil reaches a set price level during October 2026. Some contracts ask about a low threshold and others about a high threshold. The thresholds in the saved sample run from $70 to $125 per barrel [1]. Each contract is a separate market, so the prices of different thresholds should be read independently rather than as a single forecast curve. WTI is one of several reference benchmarks for crude oil. Sources describe the spot price of oil as generally referring to a benchmark crude, and name West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude among them [3]. Oil prices are described as being determined by global supply and demand [3].
Historical Context
Wikipedia's chronology of the world oil market describes large swings in crude prices over the 2000s. From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange was generally under $25 per barrel. Prices then rose above $40 during 2004 and above $60 in the following period [2]. The same source reports that prices reached $99.29 per barrel for December futures on November 21, 2007, and that on June 27, 2008, prices touched $141.71 per barrel for August delivery [2]. These are historical figures for past periods and do not describe prices in 2026.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the front-month WTI price is reported to touch a stated low or high level before the listed end time. The sample names the provider event, the threshold, and the Yes and No prices, which are snapshots taken at the observation time [1]. A snapshot price is not an executable quote and should not be read as a verified probability that the price level will be reached. Traders and readers can use the prices to see how the market was pricing each threshold at that moment, while keeping in mind that the event's resolution rules, not the price, determine the outcome. The sample includes 12 of the 21 markets in the saved provider event. Those 12 were selected by highest finite Yes price, then by volume, so the omitted nine are not shown and should not be assumed to carry lower prices [1]. Volume in the record is not a measure of liquidity or the number of traders.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-14 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does this Polymarket event ask?
It asks whether WTI crude oil will hit a set price level during October 2026, with separate contracts for different low and high thresholds [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-01T03:59:59.999Z [1].
Do the prices show the chance that WTI reaches a level?
The prices are snapshots from the observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities [1]. They show how the market was priced at that moment for each contract.
Why does the sample not include every contract?
The record includes 12 of 21 markets from the event, selected by highest finite Yes price and then by volume [1]. The omitted markets are not shown, so the sample should not be treated as the complete field.
What is WTI?
Sources describe the price of oil as generally referring to the spot price of a benchmark crude, and list West Texas Intermediate (WTI) among those benchmarks [3].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
