Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

Social Security COLA for 2028

Total Volume

$8.85K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

Social Security COLA for 2028

Vol

$8.85K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $8.85K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $8.85K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?	Kalshi	81%
Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?	Kalshi	70%
Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?	Kalshi	48%
Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?	Kalshi	32%
Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?	Kalshi	23%
Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 4.0%?	Kalshi	15%
Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 4.5%?	Kalshi	8%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

81%

Top Probability

$8.85K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

2028 If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the percentage cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, which are generally paid in January 2028. The market will be determined using the initial percentage officially announced

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Social Security COLA for 2028
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** 2028

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above X then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the percentage cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, which are generally paid in January 2028. The market will be determined using the initial percentage officially announced

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 

4.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the perc"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $8.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 4.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2027): Vol $2.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 4.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2027): Vol $204
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 31.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 68.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2027): Vol $814
  DATA: [Yes: 48.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 52.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2027): Vol $384
  DATA: [Yes: 69.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 30.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 20, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 81.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 19.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

Social Security COLA for 2028

Volume$8.85K

Markets7

7 of 7

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KALSHI

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 81.0¢No 19.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the perc

KALSHI

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 2.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the perc

KALSHI

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 48.0¢No 52.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 2.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the perc

KALSHI

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 31.5¢No 68.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 3.0%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the perc

KALSHI

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.0¢No 77.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?

If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 3.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the perc

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Social Security COLA for 2028

Social Security COLA for 2028

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Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

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Events (1)

Social Security COLA for 2028

Markets (7)

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?

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Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Social Security COLA for 2028

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 1.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 2.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.0%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?

Will the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027 be above 3.5%?

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