Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
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Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T03:00:05.981Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a five-minute window, shown in the title as "Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET" [1]. It resolves to "Up" if "the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the ETH/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that the market is "not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z [1]. That end time is the contract's listed close, not the time the outcome was determined.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation was taken at 2026-10-24T03:00:05.981Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T03:55:07.655Z [1]. These are different times, and the observation is about 55 minutes older than the retrieval. The prices below describe the market at the observation time only:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495 [1]
These are quoted snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The gap between the two outcomes is small, and the saved data does not explain why the prices sit where they do. The saved volume is not included in this summary, and volume should not be read as liquidity or as a count of traders.
The sample contains one market from one platform. The coverage record shows one saved market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. Because this is a two-outcome contract, no omitted outcome exists within the saved event. The sample warning still applies in general: the saved event does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1].
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not report the market's status at the time you read this summary. The provider status "active" comes from the source retrieved at the observation time [1]. The evidence also does not say what the TWAP was at the start of the window or during it, so it cannot indicate how the outcome will resolve.
Other platforms' contracts on Ethereum are not in this evidence, and any difference in their wording, close times, or prices should be compared on a contract-by-contract basis. Differences in price across contracts are not, by themselves, an arbitrage opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T03:00:05.981Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract titled "Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET" on Polymarket. The contract asks whether the price of Ether (ETH) will finish a five-minute window at or above where it started. According to the provider's rules, the market "will resolve to 'Up' if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Ethereum, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to 'Down'." [1] The result depends on a specific data feed rather than on the general market. The named resolution source is Chainlink's ETH/USD TWAP data stream, which is described as a 60-second TWAP stream. The rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair ETH/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A price shown on an exchange or another data site therefore does not decide this contract, even if it looks similar. The listed end time in the provider record is 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z, which is the close of the window named in the title. [1] The record's provider status at observation was active. The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-24T03:00:05.981Z, several hours before that window, so it describes the contract's listing at that earlier time and does not show how the window has played out.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of ETH/USD over one short window, using a time-weighted average from a single named feed rather than a last-trade price. [1] Because the comparison is between the TWAP over the window and the price at the window's start, a contract can resolve Up even if the price ends lower than it started, provided the average over the window is at or above the starting price. This makes the rules, not the general market price, the deciding factor. Readers should check the rule text before interpreting the contract's price in any other context.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price decides this contract?
The contract is decided by the TWAP of ETH/USD generated by Chainlink over the time range in the title, using the ETH/USD TWAP data stream. [1] The rules say it is not based on other sources or spot markets. [1]
How does the contract decide between Up and Down?
It resolves to "Up" if the TWAP over the time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and to "Down" otherwise. [1]
When does the window close?
The provider record lists the end time as 2026-10-24T19:00:00.000Z, which matches the 3:00PM ET close in the title. [1]
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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