XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
PM $0
1
1
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
PM $0
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $0
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the XRP/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/xrp-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET" [1]. Its rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The comparison is therefore between an average over the window and the starting price, not the price at the window's close.
The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules specify that the market is "about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair XRP/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on another platform, or one using a spot price feed, may resolve differently even if its title looks similar, so compare the rules before treating two contracts as the same question.
The listed end time is 2026-10-30T19:30:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's closing time in the source. It is not a resolution result, and the evidence does not show a resolution.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-30T04:17:56.885Z [1]. The prices below describe the market at the observation time, not necessarily at the retrieval time or now:
- Up: 0.505
- Down: 0.495
These are snapshot quotes, not executable prices or verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the two outcomes sum to 1.00 in this sample. The evidence does not explain why the price stood at this level, and it does not show how many traders hold either position. The volume figures are not included in this extract, so no liquidity conclusion can be drawn.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record shows one total market, one included market, and no partial sampling [1]. Because nothing was omitted, no outcome is missing from this comparison. The sample warning says the providers' lists do not establish every possible real-world outcome, but for a binary Up or Down contract the two listed outcomes are the full set of outcomes in the record.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not include the actual TWAP values, the starting price, or any resolution outcome. It also does not show any changes after the observation time. Any reader comparing this contract with another one should check the measurement window, the data source, and the listed close time, because those details define what each price is actually pricing.
References
- Polymarket: XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-30T03:00:06.332Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 30, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term crypto contract on Polymarket titled "XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET" [1]. The contract asks whether the price of XRP, measured against the US dollar, will be higher or lower over a specific 15-minute window. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of XRP over that window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of the window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The provider lists the contract as active, with a listed end time of 2026-10-30T19:30:00.000Z [1]. The contract is tied to a specific data feed. The resolution source is the XRP/USD TWAP data stream published by Chainlink, which uses a 60-second TWAP [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price in this Chainlink data stream and not the price from any other source or spot market [1]. Anyone reading the contract should therefore look at the Chainlink feed to understand how the outcome is measured, rather than at general exchange prices. The provider record was observed at 2026-10-30T03:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-30T04:17:56Z [1]. These are the times the record was captured. They are not the contract's closing time, and they do not show how the window will resolve. The listed end time is a rule of the contract, not a report that the window has already closed or that a result is known.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of XRP's price over one 15-minute window, as recorded in a specific Chainlink data stream. Because the rules compare a time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's start, the outcome depends on the averaged price during the window rather than only on the price at its end [1]. The rules also make clear that other exchanges or spot markets do not determine the result [1]. Readers who want to understand a result, or compare this contract with another XRP contract, need to check the window and the data stream named in each set of rules [1]. Prices shown for a contract are snapshots and do not by themselves indicate how likely either outcome is.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-30 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
The contract resolves to Up if the Chainlink time-weighted average price of XRP across the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1].
Which price source is used for resolution?
The resolution source is the Chainlink XRP/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second TWAP. The rules say the market is based only on that data stream, not on other sources or spot markets [1].
What does the listed end time mean?
The provider lists the end time as 2026-10-30T19:30:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's stated end time. It is not a report of an outcome.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
XRP Up or Down - October 30, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET
PM $0XRP Up or Down - October 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
PM $0
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.