ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 361.08 contracts
1
1
ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 361.08 contracts
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 361.08 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
Oct 19 - 5:00AM EDT to 5:15AM EDT If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI before 5:15 AM EDT on Oct 19, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI before 5:00 AM EDT on October 19, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The supplied Kalshi event, "ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes," is in the Crypto category [1]. Its rules state that if "the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT on Oct 18, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI before 11:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The rules also say that the price used is based on CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index, and that checking other sources "may help guide your decision" but does not set the outcome [1].
A "Yes" outcome therefore means the later one-minute average is at least as high as the earlier one. It does not mean the price rose by any particular amount. A contract using a different index, window, or averaging method would not measure the same thing, even if the asset name matches.
Reading the snapshot
The saved market lists Yes at 0.535 and No at 0.465, with the No price stored as 0.46499999999999997 [1]. These prices were observed at 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T03:41:02.768Z [1]. They are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to about 1.00, but that sum says nothing about depth or spread.
The sample includes one market from one event, and the coverage record marks it as complete, with partialSample set to false [1]. No other platform or contract appears in the evidence, so no comparison of wording or prices across contracts is possible.
The market's listed endDate is 2026-10-26T03:15:00.000Z, but the rule window covers October 18, 11:00 PM to 11:15 PM EDT [1]. The source excerpt states "Listed end time: not supplied." Readers should rely on the rule text for the measurement window and treat the endDate field as an unexplained provider value.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not establish a current price, because the snapshot was observed at 03:00 UTC on October 19, 2026 and retrieved later. It does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold either side, or how liquid the market is, since volume and depth are not supplied. The evidence does not show a resolution. The final value depends on CF Benchmarks' RTI data, which the excerpt does not report. Finally, including all saved markets does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome [1].
References
- Kalshi: ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
ETH Up or Down - 15 minutes is a Kalshi event that asks whether the price of Ether will be higher at the end of a 15-minute window than at its start, measured with a specific index. The saved event covers the window from 11:00 PM EDT to 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026 [1]. Under the contract rules, the market resolves to Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of the same index before 11:00 PM EDT [1]. The rules specify the index rather than a general price feed. The rules state that not all cryptocurrency price data is the same, and that the price used to determine the market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, not on a general consumer-facing source [1]. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected, and the official final value is their average, rounded to two decimal places [1]. The saved provider record shows the event as active at the time it was observed on October 19, 2026 at 03:00:06 UTC, and the source was retrieved about 40 minutes later [1]. Those times describe when the record was captured. They do not show whether the contract has closed or resolved, and the saved event does not report a resolved outcome. The excerpt for the event does not supply a listed end time, while the saved market record carries a separate end date field of October 26, 2026 at 03:15 UTC. The rule text itself ties the measurement window to the October 18 timestamps.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the short-term direction of the CF Benchmarks ETHUSDRTI index over one 15-minute window. Because the comparison uses averages of sixty one-second observations at each end of the window rather than single prints, the result depends on the index's averaged values rather than on any one moment [1]. Traders reading the market price are looking at how the market values a Yes outcome for that exact comparison, under the stated index and averaging rules [1]. The contract's terms, not a general view of Ether's price, determine how the event would resolve [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What index decides the outcome?
The rules name CF Benchmarks' ETHUSDRTI, described as the Real Time Index that corresponds to the market, and state that other sources such as general price pages are not the basis for resolution [1].
How is the starting and ending price calculated?
The rules compare the simple average of the sixty seconds of the index before 11:00 PM EDT with the simple average of the sixty seconds before 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026 [1].
What resolves the market to Yes?
The market resolves to Yes if the average before the 11:15 PM EDT point is at least as large as the average before the 11:00 PM EDT point [1].
How is the final value rounded?
At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected, and their average is the official final value, rounded to the nearest two decimal places [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
