GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Name: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
End: 2026-12-31T20:29:00.000Z

Total Volume

$28.53M

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Vol

$28.53M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $28.53M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $28.53M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Poly	84%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Poly	72%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Poly	68%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Poly	62%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

84%

Top Probability

$28.53M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (117 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. 

A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST.

A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. 

A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.02M
* **Total Liquidity:** $238.6K
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 8.46)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 30, 2026): Vol $1.19M
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 31, 2026): Vol $421.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 71.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $347.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 61.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 38.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?
- **Polymarket** (End: Nov 30, 2026): Vol $63.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 67.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics