North Carolina Senate District 11 winner? (2028)
K 6.58 contracts
1
2
North Carolina Senate District 11 winner? (2028)
K 6.58 contracts
1
2
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Democratic party at 53.5%.
Kalshi
- Democratic party53.5%
- Republican party44.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 6.58 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
2
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 12, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Senate District 11 If X wins the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 11, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner. Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes. X candidate listed with more than one party's label is affiliated only with the first party listed, and a candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is affiliated with that national party. Independent and unaffiliated candidates, and write-in candidates not listed on the official ballot, are affiliated with no party. X candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which the candidate qualified. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-11-10T12:00:06.000Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The saved event is "North Carolina Senate District 11 winner? (2028)." Its rules state that "If X wins the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 11, then the market resolves to Yes" [1]. The event also says it "is eligible for accelerated determination after a designated media source declares the winner" [1].
Party affiliation follows the ballot label. The rules say "Party affiliation is determined by the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, regardless of subsequent changes" [1]. Candidates listed under more than one party are affiliated only with the first party listed, and independent, unaffiliated, and unlisted write-in candidates are affiliated with no party [1]. A reader comparing the two party contracts should check these rules, because a party contract resolves on ballot labels rather than on a candidate's later stated views.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record includes two contracts from the same Kalshi event. The Democratic Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.54 and a No price of 0.46. The Republican Party contract shows a Yes price of 0.45 and a No price of 0.55. Both were observed at 2026-11-10T12:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-11-10T12:16:56Z.
These are snapshot prices from that observation time, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. They may not match prices at the time you read this. The Yes and No prices within each contract are shown as recorded, and the two party contracts are separate contracts, so their prices should not be averaged or combined into a single figure. A difference between them is not, by itself, an arbitrage opportunity.
Both contracts list an end date of 2029-11-07T15:00:00Z. The source excerpt, however, states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. The market date should therefore be treated as a listed record field, not as an announced election or resolution date. The rules also say the market "will close and expire early if the event occurs" [1].
What remains uncertain
The sample covers two of two saved markets for this event, and the record is not marked as partial. Even so, the sample warning states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Other outcomes, such as independent or other candidates, are not shown here. No price should be read as lower or higher because it is absent.
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, does not report trading volume or the number of traders, and does not include recent news about this race. The provided material also does not show how this market has performed historically.
References
- Kalshi: North Carolina Senate District 11 winner? (2028). Provider data observed 2026-11-10T12:00:06.000Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Nov 10, 2026 UTCOverview
This contract is tied to the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 11, a state legislative seat rather than a U.S. Senate seat. Its title is "North Carolina Senate District 11 winner? (2028)" [1]. The contract resolves to Yes if candidate X wins that general election. For the two markets in the saved sample, X is defined by party: one asks whether the Democratic Party will win the seat and the other asks about the Republican Party [1]. Each market is a separate yes-or-no contract, so the two prices are not complementary views of a single outcome, and a difference between them is not by itself an opportunity to trade. Party affiliation is set by a specific rule rather than by how a candidate describes themselves. The contract uses the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot, and it keeps that affiliation even if the candidate later changes parties [1]. If a candidate appears with more than one party's label, the affiliation is the first party listed. A candidate listed with a state affiliate of a national party is treated as affiliated with that national party. Independent, unaffiliated, and unlisted write-in candidates are treated as having no party. A candidate declared elected without a vote is affiliated with the party under which they qualified [1]. The contract also allows for early determination. It can be settled sooner once a designated media source declares the winner, and it closes and expires early if the event occurs [1]. The source supplies no listed end time for the market. The end date recorded in the market data is a date stored in the contract record, not an announced date for the election or for any official result [1]. The event identifier references a November 7, 2028 general election date [1], which is consistent with the federal calendar described in national reference articles [2][3]. Those articles do not cover this state district, so they provide only general background on when the national contests are scheduled.
Historical Context
The national reference articles describe the broader election calendar. They state that the 2028 United States Senate elections will be held on November 7, 2028, with 34 of the 100 seats contested, and that Class 3 senators were last elected in 2022 [2]. They also state that the 2028 presidential election is scheduled for the same day [3]. These articles do not discuss North Carolina Senate District 11, its past results, or its candidates, so no district-level history can be drawn from the supplied evidence.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether one party wins a specific North Carolina state Senate seat in the 2028 general election [1]. Because it is a state district contest, its outcome depends on the seat's own ballot and results rather than on the national Senate races described elsewhere [1][2]. The party rule is central to how the contract resolves. Because the affiliation comes from the ballot label, a candidate's later switch in party does not change the outcome, and unusual cases such as write-in candidates or candidates elected without a vote have specific treatment [1]. Prices shown for these markets are snapshots taken at a single observation time. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the trading volume shown in the data does not measure liquidity or the number of traders [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-11-10 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does a Yes outcome mean in this contract?
Yes means the candidate named in the market wins the 2028 general election for North Carolina Senate District 11, which is the condition the market is built around [1]. For the party markets, Yes means the party named in the question wins that election [1].
How is a candidate's party decided for resolution?
The contract uses the party label listed for the candidate on the official ballot. That affiliation stays the same even if the candidate later changes parties. A candidate listed under more than one party is affiliated with the first party listed, and independents, unaffiliated candidates, and unlisted write-in candidates have no party [1].
Can the market settle before the official end of the election?
Yes. The contract can be determined early after a designated media source declares the winner, and it closes and expires early if the event occurs [1]. The supplied record does not provide a listed end time [1].
Do the two party markets cover every possible outcome?
The saved sample includes two markets for this event, one for the Democratic Party and one for the Republican Party [1]. The sample is not described as a complete list of every possible result, so the two markets should be read as separate contracts rather than as a full set of outcomes.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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