Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 24, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers the Dogecoin price over a five-minute window, not a single price at a single moment. According to the rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T04:15:00.000Z [1]. The title gives the window as 12:10AM to 12:15AM ET [1]. Readers comparing these should check how the UTC timestamp maps to Eastern Time, since the listed end time is a provider field and the title is the human-readable description.
A close time is not the same as a resolution. This snapshot does not show whether or how the contract has resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-24T09:54:50.391Z [1]. These are different moments. The prices below describe the market at the observation time only and are not live quotes for the present.
The saved market lists two outcomes, Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. Because these are snapshot prices, they are not executable quotes, and they do not establish a verified probability. The record does not include volume, bid and ask depth, or any count of traders, so no conclusion about liquidity or participation can be drawn from it.
The coverage record shows one market in this event, with no partial sampling [1]. The sample warning states that all saved markets for these events are included, but that "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. For this binary Up or Down contract, the two outcomes are the only ones listed.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Up and Down prices sit at the same level, and it does not show any movement over time. It also does not include news, a forecast track record, or any other market on Dogecoin, so the snapshot cannot be compared with differently worded contracts. A similar-looking Dogecoin market on another platform could use different rules, reference data, or close times, so its price should not be treated as an equivalent value without checking those terms.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-24T09:00:05.844Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 24, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window price contract on Dogecoin, listed on Polymarket under the title "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET" [1]. The contract covers a five-minute window from 12:10 to 12:15 AM Eastern Time on October 25. Its listed end time is 2026-10-25T04:15:00Z [1]. The contract is binary, with two outcomes, Up and Down. Under the rules described by the provider, it resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The contract therefore asks whether the average price during the window finishes at or above the starting level, rather than whether the price is higher at the final moment. The resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, with a 60-second TWAP stream named in the source [1]. The provider states that the market concerns the price in that Chainlink stream and not the price on any other source or spot market [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a Dogecoin price on an exchange should expect that the two may differ, because the contract is settled on the specified data stream alone. The market data saved with this page is a single-contract listing. At the observation time, the two outcomes were each shown at 0.5 [1]. That figure is a snapshot taken at 2026-10-24T09:00:05Z and is not an executable quote. The listing was marked active at observation, which means it had not closed at that time [1]. Nothing in the available evidence shows how the contract has traded since then or how it has resolved.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Dogecoin's average price over a fixed five-minute window, as recorded in one named data stream [1]. Because the rules tie resolution to a time-weighted average and a starting price, the contract reflects a specific measurement method. Readers who want to understand the contract should focus on the TWAP definition, the window times, and the named Chainlink stream, since those determine the outcome [1]. The listed end time marks when the window closes, while the final resolution depends on the data stream values for that window [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-24 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How does this contract decide whether it resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the time-weighted average price of Dogecoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the start of that window. Otherwise it resolves Down [1].
Which data source determines the outcome?
The resolution source is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream named in the contract rules. Other sources or spot markets are not used for resolution [1].
When does the contract end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-25T04:15:00Z, which corresponds to the close of the 12:10 to 12:15 AM ET window [1].
Do the displayed prices show the probability of an Up result?
The saved prices were 0.5 for each outcome at the observation time [1]. They are snapshots from one provider record and are not executable quotes, so they should not be read as verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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