Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The Kalshi event "HYPE Up or Down - 15 minutes" covers the window from 11:00 PM EDT to 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, 2026 [1]. Under the stated rules, the market resolves Yes if the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' HYPEUSDRTI before 11:15 PM EDT is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds before 11:00 PM EDT [1]. The source adds that "Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same," and that the final value is rounded to four decimal places [1]. A reader comparing this contract with a general price chart should note that the settlement uses this specific index, not any single exchange quote.

Reading the snapshot

The saved market shows a Yes price of 0.575 and a No price of 0.425 [1]. These are snapshot values from a provider observation at 03:00:06 UTC on October 19, 2026, retrieved at 03:35:10 UTC the same day [1]. They are not current quotes, executable prices, or verified probabilities. The window they describe had already closed by the time of the observation, so the snapshot should not be read as a live view of the market.

The sample contains one market from one provider event, and it is the full saved sample for that event, not a partial one [1]. No other outcomes or platforms are included, so there is nothing to compare against and no basis for cross-platform averaging.

The listed end date in the market data is October 26, 2026 at 03:15 UTC [1]. This does not match the event window, which closes at 11:15 PM EDT on October 18, equivalent to 03:15 UTC on October 19 [1]. The excerpt also states that the listed end time was "not supplied" [1]. Readers should rely on the rule text for the measurement window and treat the October 26 date as an unexplained inconsistency in the record.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not explain why the Yes price was above the No price at the observation time, and it does not show how many participants held either side. Volume was not included in the supplied data, so no liquidity conclusion can be drawn. The provider status was listed as active at retrieval [1], but the saved record cannot confirm the current state of the market. The resolution outcome is not in the evidence. Any reader who wants a current price should check the provider directly, since this snapshot is a historical record and will not reflect later trading.

References

1. Kalshi: HYPE Up or Down - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T03:00:06.086Z.