SOL Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 332.2 contracts
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1
SOL Up or Down - 15 minutes
K 332.2 contracts
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Kalshi is Target Price: $108.5563 at 51.5%.
Kalshi
- Target Price: $108.556351.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
K 332.2 contracts
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC
About This Event
Oct 21 - 2:00PM EDT to 2:15PM EDT If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI before 2:15 PM EDT on Oct 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI before 2:00 PM EDT on October 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. While checking a source like Google or Coinbase may help guide your decision, the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI). At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected. The official and final value is the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract asks whether Solana's price rises over a 15-minute window. According to the Kalshi rules excerpt, the market resolves to Yes "If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on Oct 21, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI before 8:00 AM EDT on October 21, 2026" [1]. The comparison uses an index value, not a general market quote. The excerpt states that "the price used to determine this market is based on CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index (RTI)" and that the final value is "the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 4 decimal places" [1]. A reader should not assume that a price shown on another exchange or site settles this contract.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z and retrieved at 2026-10-21T12:23:55.964Z. The Yes outcome is priced at 0.335 and the No outcome at 0.665 [1]. These are snapshot prices from one observation. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The sample contains one market from one Kalshi event, with no omitted markets, so no comparison across platforms or contracts is possible from this evidence. Volume is not included in the saved data, so nothing can be said about depth or liquidity.
The record lists an endDate of 2026-10-28T12:15:00.000Z, but the excerpt gives the window as Oct 21, 8:00 AM to 8:15 AM EDT and states "Listed end time: not supplied" [1]. These two timestamps do not match, and the evidence does not explain the difference. The excerpt's window corresponds to 12:00 to 12:15 UTC on October 21. Readers should rely on the rules text for the measurement period and treat the endDate field as unexplained.
What remains uncertain
The saved status was "active" at observation time [1]. The evidence does not show whether the contract has settled, what its final value is, or how it was resolved. The snapshot predates the retrieval time, so the prices should not be treated as current. The evidence also gives no explanation for the price level or for any movement in it.
References
- Kalshi: SOL Up or Down - 15 minutes. Provider data observed 2026-10-21T12:00:06.317Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 21, 2026 UTCOverview
The SOL Up or Down - 15 minutes contract is listed in the Crypto category on Kalshi [1]. It asks whether the price of Solana, measured by a specific index, is higher at the end of a 15-minute window than at its start. The window in the contract rules runs from 8:00 AM EDT to 8:15 AM EDT on October 21, 2026 [1]. The rules define the comparison precisely. The market compares the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI before 8:15 AM EDT with the simple average of the sixty seconds before 8:00 AM EDT. If the first average is at least the second, the market resolves to Yes [1]. At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected, and the official value is their average, rounded to the nearest four decimal places [1]. The rules also state that not all cryptocurrency price data is the same. Checking a source such as Google or Coinbase may help a trader form a view, but the market is settled using CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index rather than those sources [1]. A trader reading the contract should therefore look at the index named in the rules, not at a general price quote. The saved market record shows a Yes price of 0.335 and a No price of 0.665 at the observation time of 12:00:06 UTC on October 21, 2026, with the status recorded as active [1]. That observation falls at the start of the 8:00 AM EDT window and comes before the outcome is known. These figures are snapshots from a single moment. They are not executable quotes and should not be read as verified probabilities. The record does not report trading volume, so nothing can be inferred from it about liquidity or how many people are trading.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Solana's price over a short, fixed window. Because the window is 15 minutes long, the outcome depends on a narrow period rather than a longer trend. The rules average prices over sixty seconds at each end of the window rather than comparing two single prints, which reduces the effect of one unusual tick at either endpoint [1]. The settlement method is the central feature. The rules specify a particular index, a particular averaging method, and a rounding rule, so two people looking at different exchanges could see slightly different prices without changing the result [1]. The saved market record also lists an end date of October 28, 2026 at 12:15 UTC [1]. That stored date does not change the 8:00 to 8:15 AM EDT window described in the rules, which govern how the contract settles.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-21 at 12:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What must happen for this market to resolve to Yes?
The simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SOLUSDRTI before 8:15 AM EDT on October 21, 2026 must be at least the simple average of the sixty seconds before 8:00 AM EDT on the same date [1].
Why does the contract not use a general exchange price?
The rules state that not all cryptocurrency price data is the same and that settlement uses CF Benchmarks' corresponding Real Time Index, even though checking sources such as Google or Coinbase may help guide a decision [1].
How is the final value calculated?
At the last minute before expiration, 60 RTI prices are collected, and the official and final value is their average, rounded to the nearest four decimal places [1].
Does the Yes price of 0.335 mean a 33.5 percent chance of a rise?
No. The recorded Yes price of 0.335 is a snapshot taken at 12:00:06 UTC on October 21, 2026, and is not an executable quote or a verified probability [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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