GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Name: What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$818.92K

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Markets

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What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Vol

$818.92K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $818.92K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $818.92K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Poly	11%
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Poly	10%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Poly	9%
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Poly	8%
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?	Poly	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

11%

Top Probability

$818.92K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Rules

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 1, 2027 (118 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Rules

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that creates a moratorium on all enrichment of uranium for Iran for a period of at least one year has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $818.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $353.3K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.32)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $121.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $143.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $134.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $220.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $136.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $62.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Rules

Volume$818.92K

Markets6

6 of 6

Sort:

POLYMARKET

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that creates a moratorium on all enrichment of uranium for Iran for a period of at least one year has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, t

POLYMARKET

Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 10.5¢No 89.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

This market resolves to "Yes" if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a non-Iranian fund or substantive funding mechanism for Iranian reconstruction or economic development, or creates an obligation for non-Iranian actors to commit funding to such recon

POLYMARKET

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a specific, percentage cap on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December

POLYMARKET

Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a commitment for Iranian-controlled enriched uranium to be downblended or diluted has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise,

POLYMARKET

Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

This market resolves to “Yes” if a written diplomatic instrument between the United States and Iran that establishes a percentage cap of 5% or less on the purity level to which Iran may enrich uranium, committed to for at least one year, has been mutually signed or otherwise formally adopted by Dece

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Next Market Closes

117d 6h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

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9¢

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