Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent

Total Volume

$228.27

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Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent

Vol

$228.27

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $228.27

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $228.27

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	89%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	82%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	75%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	66%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	56%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	9%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	5%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	3%
Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

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89%

Top Probability

$228.27

Volume

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Xavier Becerra If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Xavier Becerra

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by the specified person/party ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is 64% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the speci"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $228
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 64% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 58% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $17
  DATA: [Yes: 56.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 43.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $211
  DATA: [Yes: 66.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 34.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 82.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 18.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 89.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 11.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent

Volume$228.27

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 89.0¢No 11.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is 48% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the speci

KALSHI

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 82.0¢No 18.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is 50% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the speci

KALSHI

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 74.5¢No 25.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is 52% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the speci

KALSHI

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 66.0¢No 34.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is 54% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the speci

KALSHI

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Xavier Becerra in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California is 56% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by the speci

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/p4PBbE" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent"></iframe>

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Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent

Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent

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Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

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Events (1)

Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent

Markets (9)

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

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Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

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Orange County, California: Xavier Becerra vote percent

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 52% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 54% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

Will Xavier Becerra receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Orange County, California?

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