Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
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Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair HYPE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single short-window contract titled "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET" [1]. Its rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream," not other sources or spot markets [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-26T17:15:00.000Z [1]. The title uses Eastern Time, while the listed end time is in UTC, so readers should check both when comparing with other contracts. Other contracts may use different assets, feeds, windows, or close times, so their prices are not directly comparable.
Reading the snapshot
The saved provider observation is from 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T18:43:52.824Z [1]. This is a record of that moment, not a live quote. The contract was listed as active in that snapshot [1].
The quoted prices were Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The gap between them is small, and the saved data does not explain why the prices were where they were.
The sample contains one market from one provider event, with no omitted outcomes in the saved coverage [1]. This describes the saved event only. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this period or asset.
What remains uncertain
The saved evidence does not include current prices, trading activity, or liquidity, so the snapshot cannot show how easily a position could be entered or exited. Because the saved event is a single contract, no cross-platform comparison is supported here, and a difference in price from another contract would not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity. The evidence also does not show the HYPE/USD price path during the window, so the outcome cannot be inferred from this snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T18:00:06.091Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCOverview
This market is a short-window price contract on HYPE/USD, the trading pair for Hyperliquid, listed on Polymarket under the title "Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 26, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET" [1]. According to the saved listing, it resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Hyperliquid, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The resolution source is Chainlink's HYPE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The listing states that the contract concerns the price according to that Chainlink data stream, not other sources or spot markets [1]. This matters because a contract can settle differently from a price shown on an exchange or aggregator, even when both refer to the same asset. The saved listing shows a provider status of active and a listed end time of 2026-10-26T17:15:00.000Z [1]. The listing was observed at 2026-10-25T18:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-25T18:43:52Z [1]. The listed end time is the close of the contract's window, not evidence that the contract has resolved. Based on these timestamps, the window had not yet closed at the retrieval time, so no resolution outcome is available from the supplied evidence.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the Chainlink-generated HYPE/USD TWAP over a 15-minute window, from 1:00PM to 1:15PM ET on October 26, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the outcome depends on an average over the window compared with a starting reference, it reflects the direction of the averaged price rather than the price at a single moment [1]. Traders reading the contract's price should keep in mind that a price is a market snapshot, not an executable quote or a verified probability, and that trading volume does not indicate liquidity.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 18:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up or Down?
It resolves Up if the Chainlink-generated TWAP of Hyperliquid over the title's time range is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range, and Down otherwise [1].
Which data source is used to settle the contract?
The resolution source is the HYPE/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the listing says other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
When does the contract window end?
The saved listing gives a listed end time of 2026-10-26T17:15:00.000Z [1].
Has this contract resolved yet?
The supplied evidence does not show a resolution. The listing was retrieved on 2026-10-25 with an active status, and its window ends on 2026-10-26 [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.