Will Russia enter Stavky by...?
PM $71.2K
1
1
Will Russia enter Stavky by...?
PM $71.2K
1
1
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is December 31 at 13.5%.
Polymarket
- December 3113.5%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $71.2K
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 27, 2026, 12:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, (49.048958° N, 37.829063° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract asks whether Russia will capture territory in Stavky, Donetsk Oblast, by a set date. The rules say it "will resolve to 'Yes' if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky" [1]. Capture counts only when shading appears under specific ISW layers. The qualifying layers are "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas," "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain," and "Assessed Russian Advances." Shading under "Claimed Russian Territory" does not qualify [1].
The rules also require that qualifying shading "persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle" [1]. A negotiated settlement gives a Yes outcome only if actual control is established. An announcement giving Russia de jure control does not qualify [1]. ISW is the primary source, and DeepStateMap may be used if the ISW map is unavailable [1].
Timing needs care. The title reads "by December 31, 2026," but the listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z. The rules refer to 11:59 PM ET on the specified date [1]. A reader should confirm the time zone conversion before relying on either figure.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed this market at 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-15T19:21:34.683Z [1]. These are the only timestamps in the evidence, so the prices describe that observation window, not the present. At retrieval, the status was active [1].
The snapshot shows Yes at 0.125 and No at 0.875 [1]. These are observed prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The evidence contains no volume or trader count, so it says nothing about liquidity or how many participants hold each view.
The sample covers one market from one provider event, and the coverage record marks it as complete, with no partial sample [1]. No other outcomes or platforms are included, so this snapshot cannot be compared with other contracts on price alone. Because the contract wording and close times differ across any other platform, a price difference would not establish an arbitrage opportunity.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why the Yes price sits at 0.125. It also does not show recent ISW map changes, news coverage, or whether the shading has changed since the observation time. Any reader should treat the prices as a record from October 15, 2026, and check the ISW map and the provider page directly. No resolution has been recorded in the evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Will Russia enter Stavky by...?. Provider data observed 2026-10-15T16:13:13.851Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 15, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia contract asks whether Russia will enter Stavky, a location in Donetsk Oblast, by December 31, 2026. The market is defined by reference to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine map. It resolves "Yes" if, according to that map, Russia captures any territory of Stavky between market creation and the deadline. The specified point is given as 49.048958° N, 37.829063° E, and the boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the "Ukrainian Settlements" layer on the ISW map [1]. The rules do not count every mapped claim. Shading under the "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas," "Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain," and "Assessed Russian Advances" layers qualifies, but shading under the "Claimed Russian Territory" layer does not [1]. Any part of the territory being shaded is enough, and the shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, the shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published [1]. Once a qualifying condition is met, later loss of control does not affect resolution [1]. The rules also address negotiated outcomes. Russian control obtained through a negotiated settlement would qualify even without shading, but an announced settlement that gives Russia de jure control would not. Actual control must be established [1]. If the ISW map becomes unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used. If both sources are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Temporary glitches or errors in the map are disregarded [1]. The contract's listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to the rules' reference to 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026 [1]. That date is the contract's resolution deadline, not an announced military or political event.
Historical Context
The supplied sources do not give a history of Stavky itself. A Wikipedia entry on the Lyman front of the 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive describes a different settlement. It reports that on 1 October 2022 Ukrainian forces entered Lyman after a Russian withdrawal [3]. A Wikipedia timeline covering 1 June to 31 August 2026 is also among the sources, but its retrieved excerpt only describes the period it covers and does not mention Stavky [2]. Neither source is evidence of the current control status of Stavky.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether a specific mapped standard is met, not whether a general narrative of the war changes. Because it depends on ISW shading in defined layers, the wording of those layers determines what counts. Claimed territory is excluded, and actual control is required for a negotiated outcome [1]. Readers should therefore treat the contract as a question about a particular map standard and its persistence rules, rather than a broad forecast of battlefield events.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-15 at 16:13 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a claim of control on the ISW map count toward a Yes resolution?
Not necessarily. Shading under the "Claimed Russian Territory" layer does not qualify, while shading under the assessed infiltration, controlled terrain, and advances layers can qualify [1].
Would an announced peace deal that gives Russia the territory resolve the market?
No, not on announcement alone. An announced negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control does not qualify. Russia must actually establish control [1].
What happens if the ISW map is temporarily unavailable or contains an error?
Temporary glitches or errors in the map are not considered. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, DeepStateMap may be used, and if both are permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used [1].
Is December 31, 2026 an expected date for a military event?
No. It is the deadline written in the contract's rules, which resolve based on the time between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on that date [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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