This PredictPedia entry covers the Polymarket event "IN-02 House Election Margin of Victory," which concerns the 2026 U.S. House election in Indiana's 2nd congressional district. The provider states that the 2026 IN-02 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026 [1]. As of this snapshot, that election has not yet taken place, so no result exists to report. The contract does not ask who wins. It asks how large the winning margin will be. The source defines the "margin of victory" as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is calculated by dividing a candidate's valid votes by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1]. Because the measure uses valid votes, the result is a share-of-vote gap, not a raw vote difference. For this market, the candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not count as either party option [1]. If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the contract name will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee [1]. The source also sets out how edge cases are handled. If the reported value falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes, the tie-break depends on whether the tied candidates are listed in the contract, and the ballot-listed last name is used in some cases [1]. If the tie involves only unlisted candidates, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. Resolution depends on the official count. The source says the market resolves based on the official vote count once that count has been made official, and that the primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority that certifies the election, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. If a recount starts before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official [1]. If the results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z for the event [1]. That timestamp is a provider-listed closing time. It is not a statement that results will be certified by then, and the resolution rules above govern when the market actually settles.

Historical Context

The supplied background covers other elections rather than the IN-02 district itself. A Wikipedia entry describes the 2018 United States House of Representatives elections, held on November 6, 2018, in which voters chose representatives from all 435 congressional districts [2]. Another entry describes the 2024 Montana gubernatorial election, in which the incumbent Republican won a second term by a 20% margin, larger than his 13% margin in 2020 [3]. These entries show how margins are reported in other races, but they do not describe the history of the IN-02 contest or its candidates.

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