Snapshot observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The contract family is based on the margin of victory in the 2026 MI-13 House election. The rules define margin as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Only Democratic and Republican nominees count as options. Independent candidates do not represent either party [1].

Each bracket asks whether the Democratic candidate's margin falls within a specific range, such as "by 50%-55%" or "by 65% or more" [1]. A separate contract asks whether the Republican Party candidate wins the election [1]. These are different questions, so the bracket prices and the Republican winner price should not be read as parts of one combined forecast.

The rules also set edge cases. A value exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties are resolved by ballot-listed last name, and the rules name an "Other" outcome for certain unlisted-candidate ties [1]. Resolution follows the official count, and the rules state that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1]. That is a contract rule, not an announced schedule.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z, and the archive retrieved the source at 2026-10-16T00:21:49.660Z [1]. The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The saved sample includes 10 markets, all of them included, with partialSample set to false [1].

Within this snapshot, the Democratic "by 50%-55%" contract shows a Yes price of 0.245, and the "by 45%-50%" contract shows 0.24 [1]. The Republican winner contract shows a Yes price of 0.037 [1]. These are quoted snapshot values, not executable prices, verified probabilities, or measures of trader agreement. Volume is not included in this summary and would not indicate liquidity even if it were.

Because the brackets are mutually exclusive ranges of one quantity, a reader may compare them within this event. Do not average them with contracts from other platforms or other events, since their wording, bracket boundaries, and close times may differ.

What remains uncertain

The sample includes all saved markets for this event, but the sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The saved set contains no Republican margin brackets, so a low or absent price in this sample should not be read as a statement about omitted outcomes.

The snapshot does not explain why prices are where they are, and it does not show recent reporting. The expected election date in the source is November 3, 2026 [1], but the listed close time is later and the final resolution depends on certified official results [1].

References

1. Polymarket: MI-13 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-16T00:00:06.034Z.