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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Name: CA-14 Special Election Winner?
End: 2026-08-18T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$716.11

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Vol

$716.11

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $716.11

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $716.11

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?	Poly	72%
Will Rakhi Israni Singh win the CA-14 special election?	Poly	11%
Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?	Poly	6%
Will Matt Ortega win the CA-14 special election?	Poly	2%
Will Victor Aguilar Jr. win the CA-14 special election?	Poly	2%
Will Wendy Huang win the CA-14 special election?	Poly	2%
Will Carin Elam win the CA-14 special election?	Poly	2%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

72%

Top Probability

$716.11

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources,

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** CA-14 Special Election Winner?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Aug 18, 2026 (39 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the resu"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $716
* **Total Liquidity:** $11.1K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.06)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $196
  DATA: [Yes: 72.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 28.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Wendy Huang win the CA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $54
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Matt Ortega win the CA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $59
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Victor Aguilar Jr. win the CA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $53
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $68
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Carin Elam win the CA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $83
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Rakhi Israni Singh win the CA-14 special election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Aug 18, 2026): Vol $204
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics