BNB Up or Down - October 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
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BNB Up or Down - October 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/bnb-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This contract covers the BNB price over a five-minute window, from 6:20PM to 6:25PM ET on October 19. According to the rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1]. The resolution source is the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and the rules state that other sources or spot markets do not count [1].
The listed end time is 2026-10-19T22:25:00.000Z [1]. Readers should not confuse this with the observation time, the retrieval time, or the actual resolution, which are separate events. This snapshot was observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z and retrieved at 2026-10-19T00:28:56.380Z [1]. Those times describe when the record was captured, not when the market closed or resolved.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record contains one Polymarket market with two outcomes. The Up contract was priced at 0.505 and the Down contract at 0.495 in the observed snapshot [1]. These prices sum to 1.00 and show a near even split at that moment. They are snapshot values, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
The sample is complete for this event. The provider record shows one total market and one included market, with no partial sample [1]. Because this event has a single contract pair, there are no other outcomes to compare, and no ranking is involved.
Only one platform is represented, so there is no cross-platform comparison to make. The record does not include volume, liquidity, or trader counts, so this analysis does not address how deep the market is or how many participants hold each side.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot reflects prices at one observed moment. The evidence does not show prices after the retrieval time, and it does not establish the current price. The record also does not explain why the prices are where they are.
The contract resolves on the Chainlink TWAP over the stated window, not on the closing spot price. A reader comparing this contract with a different BNB market should check the exact window, data source, and listed end time, since differences in wording can change what is being measured.
References
- Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This is a short-window crypto price contract on BNB against USD. The saved provider record gives its title as "BNB Up or Down - October 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET" and classifies it under Crypto [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome therefore depends on the average price across the window compared with the starting price, not on the price at a single moment at the end. The resolution source is named in the provider rules as information from Chainlink, specifically the BNB/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The rules also state that the market concerns the price according to that Chainlink TWAP data stream for the BNB/USD pair, and not according to other sources or spot markets [1]. A trader reading the contract should therefore look at that specific data stream when assessing how the market will be settled, rather than at a general exchange price for BNB. The saved record lists an end time of 2026-10-19T22:25:00.000Z and a provider status of active at the time of retrieval [1]. The end time is the listed close for this contract, and the status describes the provider record at that retrieval, not a live condition at the moment you read this.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether BNB's average price over a five-minute window, as recorded by the named Chainlink TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the average is taken across the whole range, a brief spike or drop near the start or end does not by itself determine the result in the way a single closing price would. The rules tie the outcome to that specific data stream, so the resolution depends on how that stream records BNB/USD during the window [1]. The recorded snapshot showed Up at 0.505 and Down at 0.495 as observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z [1]. These are recorded prices from that observation time. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The small gap between the two outcomes in that snapshot should not be read as a forecast of direction.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes this contract resolve to Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of BNB over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What makes it resolve to Down?
If the time-weighted average price over the window is below the price at the beginning of that window, the contract resolves to Down [1].
Which price data determines the outcome?
The rules specify the BNB/USD TWAP data stream from Chainlink, and state that other sources or spot markets are not the reference [1].
When does this contract end?
The saved record lists the end time as 2026-10-19T22:25:00.000Z [1].
Do the displayed prices show the chance of each outcome?
The prices are a recorded snapshot from the saved provider record, observed at 2026-10-19T00:00:05.826Z [1]. They are not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.