Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
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Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Source snapshot: Oct 26, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event covers the Bitcoin price over the window named in its title, "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET." The rules state that it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns that feed "not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] Readers comparing this contract with a different Bitcoin contract should check whether that contract uses the same feed, window, and comparison rule.
Reading the snapshot
The saved record was observed at 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z and retrieved at 2026-10-26T08:47:35.482Z. [1] These are timestamps for the saved record, not evidence of current prices. In that record, the Up outcome was priced at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495. [1] These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The two prices sum to 1.000 in this record.
The listed end time is 2026-10-27T05:30:00.000Z. [1] The provider reported the status as active in the saved record. [1] Because the snapshot is older than the retrieval time, the status shown here describes the saved observation and may not match the market's status now.
What remains uncertain
The sample contains one market from one event, and it is not flagged as partial. [1] That scope tells readers nothing about other Bitcoin windows or other platforms, so no comparison is drawn here. The evidence does not include trading volume, liquidity, or participant counts, so the prices cannot be read as depth or agreement among traders. It also does not explain why the two prices are close to even. The record does not show the final outcome, so the result of this window is unknown from the supplied evidence.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-26T06:00:06.440Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 26, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-interval Bitcoin contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET" [1]. The contract is a binary market with two outcomes, Up and Down. It asks whether Bitcoin's price moves up or down across a specific five-minute window, measured with a time-weighted average price rather than a single trade price [1]. The rules state that the market resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the window in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to Down [1]. The measurement comes from Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules say the market concerns that data stream only, not other sources or spot markets [1]. A market on a different exchange or data feed could therefore show a different result for the same clock window. The source records a listed end time of 2026-10-27T05:30:00.000Z and an active provider status when it was observed [1]. Those are the contract's listed times and status at the time of the saved record. This entry does not establish whether the contract has closed or how it resolved, and the listed end time is a contract rule rather than a confirmed event.
Why It Matters
The contract measures the direction of Bitcoin's price over one short, fixed window, as recorded by one named data stream. Because the rules compare the time-weighted average over the window with the price at the window's start, the outcome depends on the averaged path of the price rather than only its final value [1]. Anyone reading the market's prices should keep in mind that the contract's wording limits it to the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP stream [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-26 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What determines whether this contract resolves Up?
It resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
Which price data is used?
The rules name Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and state that other sources and spot markets do not count for this contract [1].
What time window does the contract cover?
The title gives the window as 1:25AM to 1:30AM ET on October 27, and the source lists the contract's end time as 2026-10-27T05:30:00.000Z [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.