Highest temperature in Ankara on October 18?
PM $10.0K
1
11
Highest temperature in Ankara on October 18?
PM $10.0K
1
11
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $10.0K
Reported volume · provider units
11
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 17, 2026, 8:57 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks which temperature bracket will contain the highest temperature recorded for Ankara on October 18, 2026. The rules name the source: the market "will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Oct '26" [1]. The NOAA reading used is "the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day" [1]. Values are measured to whole degrees Celsius [1].
The rules include fallbacks. If NOAA data is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day after the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table is used. If no data exists by that deadline, the market "will resolve to the lowest bracket" [1]. The listed end time is 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z [1]. That is the listed close time in the rules, not an announced event or confirmed resolution time.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-17T06:00:06Z and retrieved at 2026-10-17T06:48:46Z, so they describe that moment only and may not reflect current pricing [1]. The event contains 11 bracket markets, all included in the sample, with no partial sampling reported.
Among the Yes prices, the 11°C bracket was highest at 0.435, followed by 12°C at 0.27 and 10°C at 0.225 [1]. Brackets at 13°C (0.08) and 9°C (0.0285) were lower, and the remaining brackets were at or below 0.011 [1]. The 7°C or below and 17°C or higher brackets are open-ended ranges, and each is priced at 0.0055 or lower [1].
These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The Yes prices here sum to roughly 1.06, which shows the figures are not a normalized distribution in this snapshot. That does not establish any trading opportunity, and brackets should not be compared against each other as though they were one outcome.
What remains uncertain
The snapshot does not explain why any price is where it is, and it does not show trading activity or how many participants hold each view. Volume is not liquidity. The rules allow revisions to recorded temperatures until the first datapoint for the following date is published, and erroneous published data may keep a market open for up to seven calendar days (ET) [1]. Readers should check the current contract page and the resolution source directly, since this record is a dated snapshot.
References
- Polymarket: Highest temperature in Ankara on October 18?. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
0
No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
