GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIScience and Technology

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

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$0.00

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Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	16%
Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	7%
Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	5%
Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	4%
Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	1%
Will Other be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	1%
Will Kimi be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	1%
Will Ernie be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

16%

Top Probability

$0.00

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About This Event

Before 2027 If a model X is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
**Category:** Science and Technology | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If a model X is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Other be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Kimi be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Ernie be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIScience and Technology

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Volume$0.00

Markets8

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KALSHI

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

If a model by Anthropic is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.0¢No 93.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

If a model by Google is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHITech

Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

If a model by OpenAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢

KALSHIOther

Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

If a model by xAI is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

KALSHI

Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢

KALSHIOther

Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

If a model by Alibaba is the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

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Average Yes Price

4¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/q7WI5M" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?"></iframe>

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Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

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Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Markets (8)

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Claude be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Gemini be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will ChatGPT be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Grok be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Qwen be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

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