Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
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Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
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AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
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Reported volume · provider units
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Saved contracts
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 19, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the DOGE/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/doge-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket contract covers a single short window: the Dogecoin price between 2:45AM and 3:00AM ET on October 20 [1]. It resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, over that range is "greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range." Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1].
The resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the source states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader comparing this with a Dogecoin price on an exchange or another data feed should expect those figures to differ in meaning, because this contract uses only the named stream.
The listed end time is "2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z" [1]. That value is in UTC, while the title uses Eastern Time, so readers should convert carefully before matching it to the window in the title.
Reading the snapshot
The saved observation is dated 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-19T09:25:06.585Z [1]. These are record times for this saved copy. They do not show what the market displays now.
In the saved snapshot, the Up outcome is priced at 0.5 and the Down outcome at 0.5 [1]. Because both outcomes are shown for this binary contract, the saved prices sum to 1.0. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities. The record does not include volume, order book depth, or the number of traders, so it says nothing about liquidity.
The saved sample contains one market for one event. Coverage reports 1 total market, 1 included market, and no partial sample [1]. The sample does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome, but for this binary contract the two listed outcomes are the full set in the saved record.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not show whether these prices have changed since the snapshot, why they are at 0.5, or what Dogecoin's price has done since the retrieval time. It also does not include any outcome of the window, because the contract had not closed in the record. Matching this contract to a similar Dogecoin contract with a different window, source, or end time would compare different questions, and any price difference between them would not by itself indicate an opportunity.
References
- Polymarket: Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 19, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-term binary contract on the Dogecoin price, titled "Dogecoin Up or Down - October 20, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET". It is listed on Polymarket, and the source describes its category as crypto [1]. The contract is about a price comparison over a fixed window rather than a final price level. According to the provider's rules, the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1] The comparison therefore depends on the average price across the window and the price at its start, not on the price at its end. The resolution source is named in the rules as Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream [1]. The provider states that the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair DOGE/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A reader should therefore not assume that a price on a different exchange or a general news quote determines the outcome. The saved listing shows a listed end time of 2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z [1]. That timestamp is the contract's scheduled closing time. It is not a record of when the market was resolved, and the source does not report a resolution outcome. The saved price snapshot shows "Up" at 0.5 and "Down" at 0.5, observed at 2026-10-19T09:00:05.974Z. These are provider snapshots rather than executable quotes, and they do not verify the probability of either outcome. Volume figures are not included in this entry, so no conclusions about liquidity or trader numbers can be drawn.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether the time-weighted average Dogecoin price over a specific three-quarter-hour window is at or above the price at the start of that window, using a Chainlink TWAP data stream as the reference [1]. Because the comparison is between an average and a starting value, the contract reflects the path of the price across the window rather than a single moment. Anyone reading the 0.5 and 0.5 snapshot should keep in mind that it is a dated observation of one listed contract, not a forecast confirmed by the source.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-19 at 09:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What price determines whether this market resolves Up?
The market resolves Up if the TWAP of Dogecoin, generated by Chainlink, over the time range in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range [1].
Which data source is used to settle the contract?
The stated resolution source is Chainlink's DOGE/USD TWAP data stream, and the provider says other sources or spot markets are not used [1].
Does the listed end time show when the market resolved?
No. The source gives a listed end time of 2026-10-20T07:00:00.000Z [1], which is the scheduled close. The source does not report a resolution result.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
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