Snapshot observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

This snapshot covers one Polymarket event, "BNB Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET," in the Crypto category [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" or "Down" by comparing a price average with a starting price. The rules state that the market "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of BNB, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"" [1].

The rules also name the data source: the BNB/USD TWAP data stream. They say the market concerns "the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BNB/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets" [1]. A contract on another exchange's BNB price, a spot price, or a different averaging window could resolve differently, so wording matters when comparing contracts.

The listed end time is 2026-10-28T08:00:00.000Z [1]. This is the contract's listed close time, not a confirmed resolution time or a result.

Reading the snapshot

The snapshot was observed at 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z and retrieved at 2026-10-27T08:00:59.940Z [1]. These are the times of the data, not a live feed. The provider status was recorded as active in the saved record.

The saved prices are Up at 0.5 and Down at 0.5 [1]. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes, and they should not be read as verified probabilities. This sample has one market, so there is no cross-market comparison. The saved record includes no volume figures, so this snapshot cannot show liquidity or the number of participants.

What remains uncertain

This evidence does not show any price movement over time, any trading activity, or any reason for the quoted prices. It also does not confirm the outcome, because the contract had not closed at the observation and retrieval times.

The sample includes all saved markets for this event, which is one market. That does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for this window. Because this is a single contract on one platform, no arbitrage or cross-platform conclusion can be drawn from it.

References

1. Polymarket: BNB Up or Down - October 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-27T06:00:05.981Z.