MA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.7K
1
9
MA-09 House Election Margin of Victory
PM $14.7K
1
9
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is Democrat 25-30% at 29.5%.
Polymarket
- Democrat 25-30%29.5%
- Democrat 20-25%24%
- Democrat 30-35%19%
- Democrat 15-20%14%
- Democrat 10-15%10.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $14.7K
Reported volume · provider units
9
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The 2026 MA-09 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
The contract rules define the margin of victory as "the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates" [1]. Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options, and independent candidates do not count for either party [1]. Resolution depends on the official count, and the rules say that if results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Two wording details matter when comparing brackets. If the reported value falls exactly on a boundary, the market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. The rules also cover ties, which are settled by ballot-listed last name or by "Other" when only unlisted candidates tie [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules describe the election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. The listed end time is a provider field, not a stated election event date, and it should be read alongside the rules rather than as a separate announcement.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observation time is 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-17T07:24:57.345Z [1]. These are the times for this snapshot only. The prices below describe that observation and are not live quotes.
The saved sample contains nine markets, all included, with no partial sample flag [1]. Four are margin brackets with Yes prices of 0.30 for 25 to 30 percent, 0.21 for 20 to 25 percent, 0.175 for 30 to 35 percent, and 0.125 for 15 to 20 percent [1]. The remaining brackets are priced lower, including 0.06 for 35 percent or more, 0.045 for 10 to 15 percent, and 0.0015 for each of the 0 to 5 percent and 5 to 10 percent brackets [1]. The Republican winner contract shows a Yes price of 0.0015 [1].
These are Yes prices from one provider event. They should not be averaged across platforms, and they are not verified probabilities. A low price on one contract does not establish anything about an outcome that is not in the sample.
What remains uncertain
The sample warning states that the saved markets "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. The rules mention an "Other" resolution, but no "Other" contract appears in the saved sample, so its price is unavailable.
The snapshot does not explain why prices are at these levels, and it does not show trading volume, liquidity, or the number of participants. Differences in price between these contracts are not an arbitrage opportunity without executable quotes and a full review of settlement terms.
References
- Polymarket: MA-09 House Election Margin of Victory. Provider data observed 2026-10-17T06:00:06.025Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 17, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia entry covers a Polymarket event titled "MA-09 House Election Margin of Victory." The source describes the 2026 MA-09 House election as "currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026" [1]. That is an expected date, not a confirmed result or an announced resolution. The contract does not ask who wins in the usual sense. It asks how large the gap between the top two candidates will be. The margin is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is the candidate's valid votes divided by the total valid votes cast in the election [1]. The contract therefore compares shares of valid votes, not raw vote totals. For this market, the Democratic and Republican Party nominees represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not count as either option [1]. The event lists nine markets: several Democratic margin brackets, a 35 percent or more bracket, and a Republican win contract [1]. The brackets are presented as separate yes or no contracts, each about a specific range of margin or outcome. The primary resolution source is the official results of the 2026 MA-09 House election as published by the state electoral authority that certifies results. The source also says an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may be used [1]. The market resolves on the official count once it is made official. If a recount begins before the total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is certified [1]. The listed end time for the event is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The source also sets a fallback date of June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If the results are not known definitively by then, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Why It Matters
The contract measures how decisive the 2026 MA-09 House election will be, using the gap between the top two candidates' shares of valid votes [1]. Because the bracket contracts divide the possible margins into ranges, a trader's yes or no position on each bracket depends on where the official margin lands. The Republican contract is a separate question about whether a Republican nominee wins the seat [1]. The contract's rules explain several edge cases that matter to how it resolves. A margin that falls exactly between two brackets resolves to the higher margin bracket [1]. Ties are settled under alphabetical and listing rules that depend on whether the tied candidates are listed in the contract [1]. Independent candidates are excluded from the party options, which can affect how the top two are defined in a crowded race [1].
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-17 at 06:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
How is the margin of victory calculated?
The margin is the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Each percentage is that candidate's valid votes divided by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election [1].
Which candidates count for the Democratic and Republican options?
Candidates nominated by the Democratic and Republican Parties represent the "Democrat" and "Republican" options. Independent candidates do not represent either option [1].
What happens if a named candidate is replaced before election day?
If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves based on the replacement nominee [1].
What happens if a margin falls exactly on the boundary between two brackets?
The market resolves to the higher margin bracket [1].
How are ties resolved?
If two listed candidates tie for the most valid votes, the market resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first alphabetically. If a listed candidate ties with an unlisted candidate, it resolves to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If two or more unlisted candidates tie, it resolves to "Other" [1].
What happens if results are not known by the deadline?
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "Other" [1].
Does a recount affect resolution?
If a recount is started before the vote total is official, the market stays open until the recount is complete and the vote is made official [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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